Football · New Zealand Northern League · 11/07, 07:30
Prediction: Western Springs AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Western Springs AFC0.98
Eastern Suburbs Auckland1.56
1X2
Western Springs AFC
Draw
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Western Springs AFC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Western Springs AFC
3–2–1
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Western Springs AFC 1498 · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1555
| Western Springs AFC | Draw | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 28% | 50% |
| Market | 25% | 23% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland (rating 1498 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Western Springs AFC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Springs AFC | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.9 | 1.2 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.6 | 2.8 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Springs AFC 3–2–1 Eastern Suburbs Auckland
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Western Springs AFC |
| 23/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Western Springs AFC |
| 24/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 20/10/24 New Zealand Football Championship | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 17/08/24 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 15/06/24 New Zealand Cup | Western Springs AFC | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western Springs AFC | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland City | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Auckland FC II | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| East Coast Bays | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Bay Olympic | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Fencibles United | 0-6 L | 1-0 W |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Melville United | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Auckland United FC | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs Auckland (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western Springs AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Melville United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western Springs AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern Suburbs Auckland win (51%). Probabilities: Western Springs AFC 24%, draw 25%, Eastern Suburbs Auckland 51%.
How many goals are expected in Western Springs AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Western Springs AFC 0.98 · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Western Springs AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.