Football · New Zealand Northern League · 11/07, 05:00
Prediction: Fencibles United vs East Coast Bays
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.48Total
Fencibles United1.89
East Coast Bays1.59
1X2
Fencibles United
Draw
East Coast Bays
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fencibles United
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
East Coast Bays
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fencibles United
1–2
East Coast Bays
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fencibles United 1575 · East Coast Bays 1513
| Fencibles United | Draw | East Coast Bays | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 22% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fencibles United (rating 1575 vs 1513).
- H2H favours East Coast Bays: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fencibles United | East Coast Bays | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 33/56/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 1.7 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fencibles United 1–0–2 East Coast Bays
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Fencibles United |
| 21/06/25 New Zealand Northern League | Fencibles United | 1-2 HT 1-0 | East Coast Bays |
| 12/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Fencibles United |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fencibles United | East Coast Bays |
|---|---|---|
| Birkenhead United | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 7-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Manukau United | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 6-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Auckland United FC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Fencibles United (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fencibles United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | South Auckland Rangers AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
East Coast Bays
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fencibles United vs East Coast Bays?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fencibles United win (45%). Probabilities: Fencibles United 45%, draw 23%, East Coast Bays 32%.
How many goals are expected in Fencibles United vs East Coast Bays?
The model expects 3.48 goals (Fencibles United 1.89 · East Coast Bays 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fencibles United vs East Coast Bays?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.