Football · New Zealand Northern League · 11/07, 05:00
Prediction: Birkenhead United vs Auckland United FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Birkenhead United1.91
Auckland United FC1.2
1X2
Birkenhead United
Draw
Auckland United FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Birkenhead United
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Auckland United FC
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birkenhead United
4–1–1
Auckland United FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birkenhead United 1591 · Auckland United FC 1549
| Birkenhead United | Draw | Auckland United FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1591 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Birkenhead United: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 16.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birkenhead United | Auckland United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1 | 2.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.9 / 9.1 | 2.9 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birkenhead United 4–1–1 Auckland United FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birkenhead United |
| 15/11/25 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland United FC | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Birkenhead United |
| 07/06/25 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Auckland United FC |
| 22/03/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Birkenhead United |
| 10/08/24 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 2-4 HT 0-3 | Birkenhead United |
| 05/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Auckland United FC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birkenhead United | Auckland United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Auckland City | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Fencibles United | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Auckland FC II | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Bay Olympic | 6-2 W | 3-0 W |
| East Coast Bays | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Manukau United | 5-1 W | 7-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland United FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birkenhead United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup |
3-1 | 6-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Auckland United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cambridge FC New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 8 | D |
| 27/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birkenhead United vs Auckland United FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Birkenhead United win (54%). Probabilities: Birkenhead United 54%, draw 23%, Auckland United FC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Birkenhead United vs Auckland United FC?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Birkenhead United 1.91 · Auckland United FC 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Birkenhead United vs Auckland United FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.