Football · New Zealand Northern League · 11/07, 08:30
Prediction: Manukau United vs Auckland City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.71Total
Manukau United0.86
Auckland City2.86
1X2
Manukau United
Draw
Auckland City
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Manukau United
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Auckland City
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Manukau United
0–6
Auckland City
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manukau United 1382 · Auckland City 1596
| Manukau United | Draw | Auckland City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Market | 5% | 8% | 86% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1382 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Auckland City: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manukau United | Auckland City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 3.2 | 2.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.3 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 3.3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manukau United 0–0–6 Auckland City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Manukau United |
| 02/09/23 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 5-1 HT 4-0 | Manukau United |
| 14/06/23 New Zealand Northern League | Manukau United | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Auckland City |
| 19/07/22 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Manukau United |
| 18/06/22 New Zealand Cup | Auckland City | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Manukau United |
| 07/05/22 New Zealand Northern League | Manukau United | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Auckland City |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Manukau United | Auckland City |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland FC II | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| East Coast Bays | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Melville United | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 0-5 L | 3-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 1-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Auckland United FC | 0-7 L | 1-1 D |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 7 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland City (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manukau United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
Auckland City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Takapuna New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manukau United vs Auckland City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland City win (82%). Probabilities: Manukau United 7%, draw 11%, Auckland City 82%.
How many goals are expected in Manukau United vs Auckland City?
The model expects 3.71 goals (Manukau United 0.86 · Auckland City 2.86), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Manukau United vs Auckland City?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.