Prediction: Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)
Expected goals: 3.32 (Libertad Limpeno (W) 2.31 · Cerro Porteno (W) 1.01). The model gives 65% home, 21% draw, 14% away. Over 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Libertad Limpeno (W) is 8-2-0 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Cerro Porteno (W) 7-2-1 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Libertad Limpeno (W) and 2 for Cerro Porteno (W).
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | Draw | Cerro Porteno (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Limpeno (W) (rating 1628 vs 1574).
- H2H favours Libertad Limpeno (W): 4-0-2.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | Cerro Porteno (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5 / 0.5 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.8 | 3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Limpeno (W) 4–0–2 Cerro Porteno (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Paraguay Women League | Cerro Porteno (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
| 13/12/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women | Cerro Porteno (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
| 23/11/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women | Cerro Porteno (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
| 27/04/25 Paraguay Women League | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Cerro Porteno (W) |
| 02/02/25 Paraguay Women League | Cerro Porteno (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
| 25/08/24 Paraguay Women League | Cerro Porteno (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
Standings · Paraguay Women League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 29 |
| 2 | Club Guarani (W) | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 27 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo (W) | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 6 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 5 |
| 12 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Libertad Limpeno (W) | Cerro Porteno (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | 3-1 W | 6-1 W |
| 2 de Mayo (W) | 11-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 9-0 W | 9-0 W |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Rubio Nu (W) | 3-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Club Guarani (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 8-0 W | 7-0 W |
| Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 8-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 8 W 2 D 0 L | 7 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Libertad Limpeno (W) (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertad Limpeno (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 11-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
6-0 | 9-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/03 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
3-0 | 8-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
5-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Cerro Porteno (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
3-0 | 7-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 11/05 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 23/04 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 9-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Limpeno (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Libertad Limpeno (W) 65%, draw 21%, Cerro Porteno (W) 14%.
How many goals are expected in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Libertad Limpeno (W) 2.31 · Cerro Porteno (W) 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.