Football · Paraguay Women League · 12/07, 22:15
Prediction: Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.53Total
Sportivo Trinidense (W)2.66
Deportivo Recoleta (W)0.87
1X2
Sportivo Trinidense (W)
Draw
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sportivo Trinidense (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sportivo Trinidense (W)
1–1–0
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo Trinidense (W) 1534 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1452
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | Draw | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Trinidense (W) (rating 1534 vs 1452).
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.9 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Trinidense (W) 1–1–0 Deportivo Recoleta (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/25 Paraguay Women League | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) |
| 11/04/25 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 4-2 HT 4-0 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) |
Standings · Paraguay Women League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 6 | 32 |
| 2 | Club Guarani (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 23 |
| 4 | Cerro Porteno (W) | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 18 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo (W) | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 6 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 5 |
| 12 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | Deportivo Recoleta (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 3-2 W | 6-2 W |
| Cerro Porteno (W) | 1-1 D | 0-7 L |
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| 2 de Mayo (W) | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | 0-3 L | 0-8 L |
| Rubio Nu (W) | 1-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Club Guarani (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Sportivo Trinidense (W) (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo Trinidense (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 25/04 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/04 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/03 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 22/11 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 6-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-3 | 0-7 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 23/04 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 20/03 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/11 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Copa EFE Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Trinidense (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Sportivo Trinidense (W) 75%, draw 16%, Deportivo Recoleta (W) 9%.
How many goals are expected in Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?
The model expects 3.53 goals (Sportivo Trinidense (W) 2.66 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sportivo Trinidense (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.