Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 14/07, 12:15
Prediction: Grange Thistle (W) vs North Lakes United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.17Total
Grange Thistle (W)1.08
North Lakes United (W)3.08
1X2
Grange Thistle (W)
Draw
North Lakes United (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Grange Thistle (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
North Lakes United (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grange Thistle (W)
0–1–1
North Lakes United (W)
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grange Thistle (W) 1461 · North Lakes United (W) 1608
| Grange Thistle (W) | Draw | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 8% | 12% | 81% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.17 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Lakes United (W) (rating 1461 vs 1608).
- High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grange Thistle (W) | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.6 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 4.8 / 9.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle (W) 0–1–1 North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | North Lakes United (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Grange Thistle (W) |
| 20/02/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 0-4 HT 0-0 | North Lakes United (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 6 | 29 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 18 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 17 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 14 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grange Thistle (W) | North Lakes United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia United SC (W) | 5-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 3-1 W | 6-0 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-4 L | 5-2 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-7 L | 0-0 D |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-3 L | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 5 L | 6 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: North Lakes United (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grange Thistle (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an North Lakes United (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Grange Thistle (W) 8%, draw 13%, North Lakes United (W) 79%.
How many goals are expected in Grange Thistle (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model expects 4.17 goals (Grange Thistle (W) 1.08 · North Lakes United (W) 3.08), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Grange Thistle (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.