Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 18/07, 10:30
Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.81Total
Moreton City Excelsior (W)1.27
Grange Thistle (W)2.54
1X2
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Draw
Grange Thistle (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Grange Thistle (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
1–2
Grange Thistle (W)
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1427 · Grange Thistle (W) 1493
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Draw | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (W) (rating 1427 vs 1493).
- H2H favours Grange Thistle (W): 2-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.3 | 1.9 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1–0–2 Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
| 02/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
| 03/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Grange Thistle (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 18 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 17 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 8 | Grange Thistle (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | Virginia United SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 14 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Grange Thistle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsula Power (W) | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-6 L | 3-2 W |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-3 L | 0-7 L |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 2-2 D | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 5 L | 4 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Grange Thistle (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior (W) 16%, draw 20%, Grange Thistle (W) 64%.
How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model expects 3.81 goals (Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1.27 · Grange Thistle (W) 2.54), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.