Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 19/07, 07:00
Prediction: Palm Beach SC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
Palm Beach SC (W)2.11
Logan Lightning (W)1.79
1X2
Palm Beach SC (W)
Draw
Logan Lightning (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Palm Beach SC (W)
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Logan Lightning (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palm Beach SC (W)
0–1
Logan Lightning (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palm Beach SC (W) 1450 · Logan Lightning (W) 1458
| Palm Beach SC (W) | Draw | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| Market | 45% | 22% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palm Beach SC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.9 | 1.5 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palm Beach SC (W) 0–0–1 Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 4-3 HT 4-0 | Palm Beach SC (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 18 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 17 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 8 | Grange Thistle (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | Virginia United SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 14 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palm Beach SC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) |
|---|---|---|
| The Gap NPL (W) | 3-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 2-3 L | 4-2 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-2 L | 0-6 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Palm Beach SC (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palm Beach SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 3-5 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 3-4 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palm Beach SC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palm Beach SC (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Palm Beach SC (W) 45%, draw 22%, Logan Lightning (W) 33%.
How many goals are expected in Palm Beach SC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model expects 3.9 goals (Palm Beach SC (W) 2.11 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Palm Beach SC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.