Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 18/07, 09:00
Prediction: The Gap NPL (W) vs North Lakes United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.36Total
The Gap NPL (W)1.42
North Lakes United (W)2.94
1X2
The Gap NPL (W)
Draw
North Lakes United (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
The Gap NPL (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
North Lakes United (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
The Gap NPL (W)
0–1
North Lakes United (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · The Gap NPL (W) 1531 · North Lakes United (W) 1589
| The Gap NPL (W) | Draw | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 17% | 68% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Lakes United (W) (rating 1531 vs 1589).
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| The Gap NPL (W) | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 2.7 | 3.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/0/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.6 | 4.4 / 9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · The Gap NPL (W) 0–0–1 North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | North Lakes United (W) | 5-2 HT 0-1 | The Gap NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 18 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 17 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 8 | Grange Thistle (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | Virginia United SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 14 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | The Gap NPL (W) | North Lakes United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Lightning (W) | 3-2 W | 6-0 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 5-3 W | 2-0 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 4-3 W | 1-0 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 3-2 W | 6-0 W |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 4-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 5-3 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: North Lakes United (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
The Gap NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 5-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 5-3 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-3 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in The Gap NPL (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an North Lakes United (W) win (67%). Probabilities: The Gap NPL (W) 15%, draw 17%, North Lakes United (W) 67%.
How many goals are expected in The Gap NPL (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model expects 4.36 goals (The Gap NPL (W) 1.42 · North Lakes United (W) 2.94), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in The Gap NPL (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.