Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 18/07, 09:00
Prediction: Virginia United SC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Virginia United SC (W)0.96
Mitchelton FC (W)2.27
1X2
Virginia United SC (W)
Draw
Mitchelton FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Virginia United SC (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Mitchelton FC (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Virginia United SC (W)
1–5
Mitchelton FC (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia United SC (W) 1460 · Mitchelton FC (W) 1514
| Virginia United SC (W) | Draw | Mitchelton FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mitchelton FC (W) (rating 1460 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Mitchelton FC (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia United SC (W) | Mitchelton FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.1 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 0.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia United SC (W) 1–0–5 Mitchelton FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Mitchelton FC (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 29/07/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
| 07/06/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Mitchelton FC (W) | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 26/03/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
| 28/08/21 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
| 17/04/21 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Mitchelton FC (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Virginia United SC (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 18 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 17 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 15 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 8 | Grange Thistle (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | Virginia United SC (W) | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 14 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virginia United SC (W) | Mitchelton FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Grange Thistle (W) | 0-5 L | 3-1 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 1-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Mitchelton FC (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia United SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Mitchelton FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Virginia United SC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mitchelton FC (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Virginia United SC (W) 14%, draw 19%, Mitchelton FC (W) 67%.
How many goals are expected in Virginia United SC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Virginia United SC (W) 0.96 · Mitchelton FC (W) 2.27), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Virginia United SC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.