Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 12/07, 11:00
Prediction: Virginia United SC (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.52Total
Virginia United SC (W)1.82
Grange Thistle (W)1.69
1X2
Virginia United SC (W)
Draw
Grange Thistle (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Virginia United SC (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Grange Thistle (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Virginia United SC (W)
2–2
Grange Thistle (W)
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia United SC (W) 1466 · Grange Thistle (W) 1464
| Virginia United SC (W) | Draw | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | 43% | 20% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.52 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia United SC (W) | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 0.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia United SC (W) 2–0–2 Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 16/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Grange Thistle (W) |
| 23/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 27/09/20 Australia Brisbane Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Grange Thistle (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 6 | 29 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Peninsula Power (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 17 |
| 5 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 15 |
| 6 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 15 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 14 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virginia United SC (W) | Grange Thistle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsula Power (W) | 1-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-4 L | 0-7 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Virginia United SC (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia United SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Virginia United SC (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Virginia United SC (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Virginia United SC (W) 42%, draw 22%, Grange Thistle (W) 36%.
How many goals are expected in Virginia United SC (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model expects 3.52 goals (Virginia United SC (W) 1.82 · Grange Thistle (W) 1.69), with a 57% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Virginia United SC (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.