Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 07/11, 17:00

Prediction: NK Krsko vs NK Rudar Velenje

Team pages: NK Krsko · NK Rudar Velenje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

NK Krsko0.91

NK Rudar Velenje1.91

1X2

17% 22% 61%

NK Krsko Draw NK Rudar Velenje

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krsko 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLWDLLLL

NK Rudar Velenje 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLWLD

Head-to-head

NK Krsko 1–5 NK Rudar Velenje (6 last)

NK Rudar Velenje3-0NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-2NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje7-1NK Krsko
NK Krsko1-3NK Rudar Velenje
NK Krsko2-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje1-0NK Krsko

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krsko 1431 · NK Rudar Velenje 1497

	NK Krsko	Draw	NK Rudar Velenje
Our model	16%	24%	60%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Rudar Velenje (rating 1431 vs 1497).
H2H favours NK Rudar Velenje: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krsko	NK Rudar Velenje
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.9	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.1	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.20

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +5’	5.00	4.20	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Krsko 1–0–5 NK Rudar Velenje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Krsko
04/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-2 HT 0-2	NK Rudar Velenje
09/09/25 Slovenia Cup	NK Rudar Velenje	7-1 HT 2-0	NK Krsko
25/09/24 Slovenia Cup	NK Krsko	1-3 HT 1-3	NK Rudar Velenje
04/05/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	2-1 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje
22/10/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Krsko

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
3	ND Beltinci	13	9	1	3	39	17	28
4	NK Bistrica	13	7	2	4	19	16	23
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
6	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	13	5	2	6	14	21	17
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
11	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
14	NK Krka	13	4	1	8	17	22	13
15	NK Krsko	13	2	3	8	9	27	9
16	NK Brezice	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krsko	NK Rudar Velenje
NK Bistrica	0-2 L	1-3 L
ND Dravinja	0-6 L	3-1 W
NK Brezice	1-2 L	4-3 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-2 L	2-0 W
NK Vrhnika	0-0 D	2-4 L
NK Bilje	3-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudar Velenje (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Krsko

DLLLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
28/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	1	3	L
18/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
11/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
03/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
29/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

NK Rudar Velenje

WLWWWLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-2	5	5	D
27/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
17/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	7	8	W
09/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
04/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	8	L
28/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	4-3	7	4	W
13/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
04/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	9	2	L
29/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krsko vs NK Rudar Velenje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Rudar Velenje win (61%). Probabilities: NK Krsko 17%, draw 22%, NK Rudar Velenje 61%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krsko vs NK Rudar Velenje?

The model expects 2.83 goals (NK Krsko 0.91 · NK Rudar Velenje 1.91), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krsko vs NK Rudar Velenje?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.