Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 13/11, 17:00

Prediction: NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Jesenice

Team pages: NK Primorje Ajdovscina · NK Jesenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

NK Primorje Ajdovscina1.37

NK Jesenice1.14

1X2

42% 27% 31%

NK Primorje Ajdovscina Draw NK Jesenice

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Primorje Ajdovscina 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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NK Jesenice 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1475 · NK Jesenice 1489

	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	Draw	NK Jesenice
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	NK Jesenice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +9’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	NK Jesenice
ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-0 W	0-0 D
NK Rudar Velenje	1-0 W	2-2 D
NK Bistrica	0-1 L	1-3 L
ND Dravinja	1-1 D	1-2 L
NK Brezice	1-1 D	2-2 D
NK Triglav Kranj	1-1 D	0-4 L
NK Vrhnika	1-2 L	5-0 W
NK Bilje	2-3 L	2-0 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Primorje Ajdovscina (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Primorje Ajdovscina

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
01/11	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
11/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
03/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	9	9	D
26/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
11/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	2-3	4	8	L
04/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

NK Jesenice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
28/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
16/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
04/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	1	4	L
27/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-0	3	4	W
20/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Jesenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Primorje Ajdovscina win (42%). Probabilities: NK Primorje Ajdovscina 42%, draw 27%, NK Jesenice 31%.

How many goals are expected in NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Jesenice?

The model expects 2.51 goals (NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1.37 · NK Jesenice 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Jesenice?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.