Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 15/11, 14:00

Prediction: ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Krsko

Team pages: ND Slovan Ljubljana · NK Krsko

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.5

NK Krsko0.89

1X2

51% 27% 22%

ND Slovan Ljubljana Draw NK Krsko

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Slovan Ljubljana 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDLLLD

NK Krsko 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

ND Slovan Ljubljana 0–2–0 NK Krsko (2 last)

NK Krsko1-1ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana1-1NK Krsko

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1464 · NK Krsko 1411

	ND Slovan Ljubljana	Draw	NK Krsko
Our model	50%	29%	21%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Slovan Ljubljana (rating 1464 vs 1411).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Slovan Ljubljana	NK Krsko
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +9’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Slovan Ljubljana 0–2–0 NK Krsko

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	1-1 HT 0-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
18/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Krsko

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Slovan Ljubljana	NK Krsko
NK Rudar Velenje	0-2 L	1-3 L
NK Bistrica	1-1 D	0-2 L
ND Dravinja	4-1 W	0-6 L
NK Brezice	1-0 W	1-2 L
NK Triglav Kranj	0-3 L	0-2 L
NK Vrhnika	0-0 D	0-0 D
NK Bilje	0-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: ND Slovan Ljubljana (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Slovan Ljubljana

LDLWWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
01/11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
27/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
17/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	1	8	L
11/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
03/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	4-1	7	3	W
27/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
12/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	3	L

NK Krsko

LLLWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
01/11	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
28/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	1	3	L
18/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
11/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
03/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Krsko?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ND Slovan Ljubljana win (51%). Probabilities: ND Slovan Ljubljana 51%, draw 27%, NK Krsko 22%.

How many goals are expected in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Krsko?

The model expects 2.39 goals (ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.5 · NK Krsko 0.89), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Krsko?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.