Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: NK Brezice vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Brezice · ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

NK Brezice1.22

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.73

1X2

26% 25% 48%

NK Brezice Draw ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Brezice 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWDLL

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLWWL

Head-to-head

NK Brezice 2–3–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana (6 last)

NK Brezice2-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-2NK Brezice
NK Brezice3-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-1NK Brezice
ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-1NK Brezice
NK Brezice0-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Brezice 1449 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1463

	NK Brezice	Draw	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Brezice: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Brezice	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	1.1 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +13’	3.40	3.60	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Brezice 2–3–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/11/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	2-1 HT 2-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
08/08/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-2 HT 1-2	NK Brezice
04/05/19 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	3-1 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
13/10/18 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Brezice
28/04/18 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-1 HT 0-0	NK Brezice
15/10/17 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	0-0 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Brezice	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Beltinci	0-6 L	2-4 L
Jadran Dekani	0-0 D	0-1 L
NK Krsko	2-1 W	2-0 W
NK Jesenice	2-2 D	1-3 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1-1 D	0-0 D
ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-1 L	1-2 L
NK Triglav Kranj	0-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: ND Ilirija Ljubljana (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Brezice

LLLLDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
02/11	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	12	4	L
27/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
18/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
10/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-2	9	7	D
03/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	9	D
27/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
19/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-4	4	4	L
16/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
12/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	0	2	L

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

LDLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-4	1	6	L
31/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	1	3	W
27/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
16/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
04/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-4	5	6	L
25/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Brezice vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Ilirija Ljubljana win (48%). Probabilities: NK Brezice 26%, draw 25%, ND Ilirija Ljubljana 48%.

How many goals are expected in NK Brezice vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.95 goals (NK Brezice 1.22 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.73), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Brezice vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.