Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Vrhnika vs Tabor Sezana

Team pages: NK Vrhnika · Tabor Sezana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

NK Vrhnika0.8

Tabor Sezana1.82

1X2

16% 23% 61%

NK Vrhnika Draw Tabor Sezana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Vrhnika 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDWLDLLLLL

Tabor Sezana 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

NK Vrhnika 0–1 Tabor Sezana (1 last)

Tabor Sezana3-2NK Vrhnika

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Vrhnika 1437 · Tabor Sezana 1560

	NK Vrhnika	Draw	Tabor Sezana
Our model	15%	25%	60%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tabor Sezana (rating 1437 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Vrhnika	Tabor Sezana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.10

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.77

2 (-1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +10’	5.50	4.10	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Vrhnika 0–0–1 Tabor Sezana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/24 Club Friendly List	Tabor Sezana	3-2 HT 2-1	NK Vrhnika

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Vrhnika	Tabor Sezana
NK Bilje	0-3 L	2-3 L
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-4 L	1-0 W
NK Krka	0-3 L	2-1 W
ND Beltinci	1-2 L	1-5 L
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	0-0 D
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-1 W	1-0 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-0 D	2-0 W
NK Rudar Velenje	4-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tabor Sezana (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Vrhnika

WDWLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
31/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
27/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
18/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
03/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-5	3	4	L
19/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	9	W
12/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	6	2	W

Tabor Sezana

DWLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
31/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
27/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
16/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
03/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
26/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-5	3	5	L
11/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	5-1	4	6	W
04/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Vrhnika vs Tabor Sezana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tabor Sezana win (61%). Probabilities: NK Vrhnika 16%, draw 23%, Tabor Sezana 61%.

How many goals are expected in NK Vrhnika vs Tabor Sezana?

The model expects 2.62 goals (NK Vrhnika 0.8 · Tabor Sezana 1.82), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Vrhnika vs Tabor Sezana?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.