Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Bistrica vs ND Beltinci

Team pages: NK Bistrica · ND Beltinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

NK Bistrica1.49

ND Beltinci1.91

1X2

29% 25% 46%

NK Bistrica Draw ND Beltinci

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bistrica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWWL

ND Beltinci 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

NK Bistrica 2–1–3 ND Beltinci (6 last)

ND Beltinci3-0NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica0-1ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci1-3NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-2ND Beltinci
NK Bistrica1-0ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci3-0NK Bistrica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bistrica 1540 · ND Beltinci 1615

	NK Bistrica	Draw	ND Beltinci
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Beltinci (rating 1540 vs 1615).
H2H favours ND Beltinci: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bistrica	ND Beltinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	3.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +10’	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bistrica 2–1–3 ND Beltinci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Bistrica
25/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	0-1 HT 0-1	ND Beltinci
15/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	1-3 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica
01/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-2 HT 2-1	ND Beltinci
28/04/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-0 HT 0-0	ND Beltinci
07/10/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	3-0 HT 2-0	NK Bistrica

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	14	11	1	2	27	10	34
2	NK Triglav Kranj	14	10	1	3	31	13	31
3	ND Beltinci	14	10	1	3	42	18	31
4	NK Bilje	14	8	0	6	26	27	24
5	NK Bistrica	14	7	2	5	19	17	23
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	14	7	1	6	25	17	22
7	NK Rudar Velenje	14	7	1	6	26	21	22
8	NK Jesenice	14	5	4	5	22	21	19
9	Jadran Dekani	14	5	4	5	8	8	19
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
11	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
12	NK Krka	14	5	1	8	18	22	16
13	NK Vrhnika	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
14	ND Dravinja	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
15	NK Krsko	14	2	3	9	10	30	9
16	NK Brezice	14	1	4	9	12	28	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bistrica	ND Beltinci
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	0-0 D
NK Krsko	2-0 W	3-2 W
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	5-1 W
ND Dravinja	1-3 L	3-1 W
NK Brezice	2-1 W	6-0 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-1 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ND Beltinci (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bistrica

LWLLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
01/11	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	10	7	W
28/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	1	7	W
17/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
26/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

ND Beltinci

WDWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	10	2	W
02/11	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	5-0	6-0	3	4	W
28/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-4	6	4	L
18/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
10/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
04/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
27/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	5-1	1	5	W
13/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
05/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bistrica vs ND Beltinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Beltinci win (46%). Probabilities: NK Bistrica 29%, draw 25%, ND Beltinci 46%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bistrica vs ND Beltinci?

The model expects 3.4 goals (NK Bistrica 1.49 · ND Beltinci 1.91), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bistrica vs ND Beltinci?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.