Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: Jadran Dekani vs NK Bistrica

Team pages: Jadran Dekani · NK Bistrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

Jadran Dekani0.95

NK Bistrica1.08

1X2

32% 30% 38%

Jadran Dekani Draw NK Bistrica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Jadran Dekani 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWLDL

NK Bistrica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Jadran Dekani 1–1–4 NK Bistrica (6 last)

Jadran Dekani1-0NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-0Jadran Dekani
NK Bistrica8-2Jadran Dekani
Jadran Dekani1-1NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica1-0Jadran Dekani
Jadran Dekani1-4NK Bistrica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jadran Dekani 1491 · NK Bistrica 1563

	Jadran Dekani	Draw	NK Bistrica
Our model	30%	33%	37%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bistrica (rating 1491 vs 1563).
H2H favours NK Bistrica: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jadran Dekani	NK Bistrica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 0.5	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.30

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +5’	2.70	3.30	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jadran Dekani 1–1–4 NK Bistrica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	Jadran Dekani	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Bistrica
21/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-0 HT 1-0	Jadran Dekani
17/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	8-2 HT 4-2	Jadran Dekani
09/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	Jadran Dekani	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica
19/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-0 HT 1-0	Jadran Dekani
25/10/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	Jadran Dekani	1-4 HT 0-3	NK Bistrica

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
3	ND Beltinci	13	9	1	3	39	17	28
4	NK Bistrica	13	7	2	4	19	16	23
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
6	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	13	5	2	6	14	21	17
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
11	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
14	NK Krka	13	4	1	8	17	22	13
15	NK Krsko	13	2	3	8	9	27	9
16	NK Brezice	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jadran Dekani	NK Bistrica
ND Dravinja	0-1 L	1-3 L
NK Brezice	0-0 D	2-1 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Vrhnika	1-0 W	2-0 W
Tabor Sezana	0-0 D	0-1 L
NK Krsko	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bistrica (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jadran Dekani

DDDWWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
27/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
16/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
10/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
06/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
25/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
20/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
04/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
29/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

NK Bistrica

WLWLLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	10	7	W
28/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	1	7	W
17/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
26/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jadran Dekani vs NK Bistrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Bistrica win (38%). Probabilities: Jadran Dekani 32%, draw 30%, NK Bistrica 38%.

How many goals are expected in Jadran Dekani vs NK Bistrica?

The model expects 2.04 goals (Jadran Dekani 0.95 · NK Bistrica 1.08), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jadran Dekani vs NK Bistrica?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.