Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Krka vs NK Brezice

Team pages: NK Krka · NK Brezice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

NK Krka2

NK Brezice1.32

1X2

52% 24% 24%

NK Krka Draw NK Brezice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krka 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLWW

NK Brezice 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDDWDL

Head-to-head

NK Krka 3–3–0 NK Brezice (6 last)

NK Brezice1-3NK Krka
NK Brezice3-3NK Krka
NK Brezice0-1NK Krka
NK Krka4-0NK Brezice
NK Krka1-1NK Brezice
NK Krka1-1NK Brezice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krka 1516 · NK Brezice 1435

	NK Krka	Draw	NK Brezice
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Krka (rating 1516 vs 1435).
H2H favours NK Krka: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krka	NK Brezice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +6’	1.73	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Krka 3–3–0 NK Brezice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Club Friendly List	NK Brezice	1-3 HT 0-2	NK Krka
19/07/23 Club Friendly List	NK Brezice	3-3	NK Krka
06/03/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Krka
20/08/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	4-0 HT 3-0	NK Brezice
05/05/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Brezice
16/10/20 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Brezice

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
3	ND Beltinci	13	9	1	3	39	17	28
4	NK Bistrica	13	7	2	4	19	16	23
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
6	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	13	5	2	6	14	21	17
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
11	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
14	NK Krka	13	4	1	8	17	22	13
15	NK Krsko	13	2	3	8	9	27	9
16	NK Brezice	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krka	NK Brezice
NK Triglav Kranj	4-2 W	0-4 L
ND Beltinci	0-3 L	0-6 L
Jadran Dekani	1-2 L	0-0 D
NK Krsko	1-0 W	2-1 W
NK Jesenice	2-0 W	2-2 D
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-3 L	1-1 D
ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Krka (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Krka

LLWWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	4	2	W
27/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
17/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	9	7	W
05/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
28/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
21/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	11	5	L

NK Brezice

DLLLLDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	12	4	L
27/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
18/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
10/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-2	9	7	D
03/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	9	D
27/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
19/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-4	4	4	L
16/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
12/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
05/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krka vs NK Brezice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Krka win (52%). Probabilities: NK Krka 52%, draw 24%, NK Brezice 24%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krka vs NK Brezice?

The model expects 3.32 goals (NK Krka 2 · NK Brezice 1.32), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krka vs NK Brezice?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.