Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 06/11, 14:00

Prediction: ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Triglav Kranj

Team pages: ND Ilirija Ljubljana · NK Triglav Kranj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.21

NK Triglav Kranj1.58

1X2

28% 26% 46%

ND Ilirija Ljubljana Draw NK Triglav Kranj

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLLLWW

NK Triglav Kranj 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWWWL

Head-to-head

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 0–3–3 NK Triglav Kranj (6 last)

NK Triglav Kranj1-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana0-2NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj1-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-2NK Triglav Kranj
ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-2NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj0-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1487 · NK Triglav Kranj 1551

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	Draw	NK Triglav Kranj
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1487 vs 1551).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	NK Triglav Kranj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +5’	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 0–3–3 NK Triglav Kranj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	1-1 HT 0-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
03/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj
26/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	1-0 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
09/08/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-2 HT 1-0	NK Triglav Kranj
29/03/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj
15/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	0-0 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
3	ND Beltinci	13	9	1	3	39	17	28
4	NK Bistrica	13	7	2	4	19	16	23
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
6	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	13	5	2	6	14	21	17
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
11	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
14	NK Krka	13	4	1	8	17	22	13
15	NK Krsko	13	2	3	8	9	27	9
16	NK Brezice	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	NK Triglav Kranj
ND Beltinci	2-4 L	4-3 W
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	1-0 W
NK Krsko	2-0 W	2-0 W
NK Jesenice	1-3 L	4-0 W
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	0-0 D	1-1 D
ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-2 L	3-0 W
NK Rudar Velenje	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Triglav Kranj (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	1	3	W
27/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
16/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
04/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-4	5	6	L
25/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W

NK Triglav Kranj

WLWWDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	10	2	L
28/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	4-3	5	4	W
16/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
11/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
04/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
26/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
16/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
13/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
04/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Triglav Kranj?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Triglav Kranj win (46%). Probabilities: ND Ilirija Ljubljana 28%, draw 26%, NK Triglav Kranj 46%.

How many goals are expected in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model expects 2.79 goals (ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.21 · NK Triglav Kranj 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.