Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Bilje vs NK Vrhnika

Team pages: NK Bilje · NK Vrhnika

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

NK Bilje1.9

NK Vrhnika1.33

1X2

50% 25% 26%

NK Bilje Draw NK Vrhnika

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bilje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWLW

NK Vrhnika 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDLLLL

Head-to-head

NK Bilje 0–1 NK Vrhnika (1 last)

NK Bilje0-2NK Vrhnika

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bilje 1488 · NK Vrhnika 1449

	NK Bilje	Draw	NK Vrhnika
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bilje	NK Vrhnika
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.5	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +11’	2.00	3.50	3.00
15:18 +2’	1.80▼	3.60▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bilje 0–0–1 NK Vrhnika

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Club Friendly List	NK Bilje	0-2 HT 0-2	NK Vrhnika

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
3	ND Beltinci	13	9	1	3	39	17	28
4	NK Bistrica	13	7	2	4	19	16	23
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
6	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	13	5	2	6	14	21	17
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
11	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
14	NK Krka	13	4	1	8	17	22	13
15	NK Krsko	13	2	3	8	9	27	9
16	NK Brezice	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bilje	NK Vrhnika
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-3 L	1-4 L
NK Krka	2-0 W	0-3 L
ND Beltinci	1-5 L	1-2 L
Jadran Dekani	2-0 W	0-1 L
NK Krsko	1-3 L	0-0 D
NK Jesenice	0-2 L	0-5 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	3-2 W	2-1 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	4-0 W	0-0 D
NK Rudar Velenje	1-4 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bilje (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bilje

LWWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
27/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
17/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	4	L
06/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
27/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
11/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-2	3	8	W
05/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
29/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	3	L

NK Vrhnika

LWDWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
27/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
18/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
03/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-5	3	4	L
19/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	9	W
12/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
29/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bilje vs NK Vrhnika?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bilje win (50%). Probabilities: NK Bilje 50%, draw 25%, NK Vrhnika 26%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bilje vs NK Vrhnika?

The model expects 3.23 goals (NK Bilje 1.9 · NK Vrhnika 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bilje vs NK Vrhnika?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.