Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: NK Vrhnika vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Vrhnika · ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

NK Vrhnika1.2

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.41

1X2

31% 27% 41%

NK Vrhnika Draw ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Vrhnika 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLDLLL

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLLLW

Head-to-head

NK Vrhnika 0–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana (1 last)

ND Ilirija Ljubljana4-2NK Vrhnika

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Vrhnika 1460 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1488

	NK Vrhnika	Draw	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Our model	31%	29%	41%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Vrhnika	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +14’	2.80	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Vrhnika 0–0–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/08/26 Slovenia Cup	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	4-2 HT 3-0	NK Vrhnika

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	12	10	1	1	24	7	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	12	9	1	2	25	8	28
3	ND Beltinci	12	8	1	3	33	17	25
4	NK Bistrica	12	6	2	4	17	16	20
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	12	6	1	5	20	12	19
6	NK Rudar Velenje	12	6	0	6	21	18	18
7	NK Bilje	12	6	0	6	20	25	18
8	NK Jesenice	12	5	2	5	20	19	17
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	12	5	2	5	14	20	17
10	Jadran Dekani	12	4	4	4	7	7	16
11	NK Vrhnika	12	4	2	6	11	18	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	12	3	4	5	12	17	13
13	ND Dravinja	12	3	2	7	18	26	11
14	NK Krka	12	3	1	8	13	20	10
15	NK Krsko	12	2	3	7	9	25	9
16	NK Brezice	12	1	4	7	12	21	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Vrhnika	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Beltinci	1-2 L	2-4 L
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Krsko	0-0 D	2-0 W
NK Jesenice	0-5 L	1-3 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-1 W	0-0 D
ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-0 D	1-2 L
NK Rudar Velenje	4-2 W	2-0 W
NK Bistrica	0-2 L	6-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Vrhnika

WLWDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
18/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
03/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-5	3	4	L
19/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	9	W
12/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
29/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
22/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

WWLDLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
16/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
04/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-4	5	6	L
25/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Vrhnika vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Ilirija Ljubljana win (41%). Probabilities: NK Vrhnika 31%, draw 27%, ND Ilirija Ljubljana 41%.

How many goals are expected in NK Vrhnika vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.61 goals (NK Vrhnika 1.2 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Vrhnika vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.