Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 02/11, 17:00

Prediction: NK Brezice vs ND Beltinci

Team pages: NK Brezice · ND Beltinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

NK Brezice1.23

ND Beltinci2.18

1X2

20% 22% 58%

NK Brezice Draw ND Beltinci

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Brezice 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDDWD

ND Beltinci 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWL

Head-to-head

NK Brezice 3–1–2 ND Beltinci (6 last)

NK Brezice1-3ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci3-2NK Brezice
NK Brezice2-1ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci1-1NK Brezice
NK Brezice2-0ND Beltinci
NK Brezice5-0ND Beltinci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Brezice 1468 · ND Beltinci 1588

	NK Brezice	Draw	ND Beltinci
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Beltinci (rating 1468 vs 1588).
H2H favours NK Brezice: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Brezice	ND Beltinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.10

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.74 ★
X	3.90 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.53
2	1.60 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:21 +9’	4.50	3.90	1.60
02:56 +5’	5.00▲	4.10▲	1.50▼
12:02 +1’	4.50▼	4.00▼	1.55▲
14:00 +2’	4.50	4.10▲	1.55
14:58 +4’	5.00▲	4.20▲	1.50▼
16:01 +1’	4.50▼	4.10▼	1.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:42 +19’	5.07	4.18	1.46
06:40 +21’	5.31▲	4.28▲	1.43▼
12:00 +3’	4.62▼	3.97▼	1.53▲
14:48 +13’	5.59▲	4.43▲	1.40▼
16:01 +1’	5.74▲	4.53▲	1.41▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Brezice 3–1–2 ND Beltinci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	1-3 HT 0-1	ND Beltinci
05/09/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	3-2 HT 1-1	NK Brezice
10/10/20 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	2-1 HT 1-1	ND Beltinci
17/11/19 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Brezice
10/08/19 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	2-0 HT 0-0	ND Beltinci
26/05/19 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	5-0 HT 3-0	ND Beltinci

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	12	9	1	2	25	8	28
3	ND Beltinci	12	8	1	3	33	17	25
4	NK Bistrica	13	7	2	4	19	16	23
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
6	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	13	5	2	6	14	21	17
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
11	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
14	NK Krka	12	3	1	8	13	20	10
15	NK Krsko	13	2	3	8	9	27	9
16	NK Brezice	12	1	4	7	12	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Brezice	ND Beltinci
Jadran Dekani	0-0 D	0-0 D
NK Krsko	2-1 W	3-2 W
NK Jesenice	2-2 D	1-3 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1-1 D	4-0 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-4 L	3-4 L
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ND Beltinci (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Brezice

LDLLLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
18/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
10/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-2	9	7	D
03/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	9	D
27/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
19/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-4	4	4	L
16/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
12/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
05/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

ND Beltinci

WLWDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-4	6	4	L
18/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
10/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
04/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
27/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	5-1	1	5	W
13/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
05/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
29/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
23/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Brezice vs ND Beltinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Beltinci win (58%). Probabilities: NK Brezice 20%, draw 22%, ND Beltinci 58%.

How many goals are expected in NK Brezice vs ND Beltinci?

The model expects 3.4 goals (NK Brezice 1.23 · ND Beltinci 2.18), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Brezice vs ND Beltinci?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.