Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: NK Bistrica vs NK Krsko

Team pages: NK Bistrica · NK Krsko

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

NK Bistrica2.5

NK Krsko1.14

1X2

66% 19% 15%

NK Bistrica Draw NK Krsko

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bistrica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWDWW

NK Krsko 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWDLLL

Head-to-head

NK Bistrica 1–2–0 NK Krsko (3 last)

NK Krsko2-2NK Bistrica
NK Krsko2-2NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-1NK Krsko

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bistrica 1575 · NK Krsko 1435

	NK Bistrica	Draw	NK Krsko
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bistrica (rating 1575 vs 1435).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bistrica	NK Krsko
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	0.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.44 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.25 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +3’	1.36	4.50	6.25
02:09 +1’	1.30▼	4.75▲	7.50▲
02:59 +7’	1.36▲	4.50▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:25 +41’	1.45	4.16	5.21
03:40 +27’	1.44▼	4.25▲	5.28▲
04:39 +29’	1.43▼	4.32▲	5.32▲
12:05 +5’	1.44▲	4.41▲	5.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bistrica 1–2–0 NK Krsko

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	2-2 HT 1-1	NK Bistrica
18/03/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	2-2 HT 2-2	NK Bistrica
04/09/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Krsko

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	12	9	1	2	25	8	28
3	ND Beltinci	12	8	1	3	33	17	25
4	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
5	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
6	NK Bistrica	12	6	2	4	17	16	20
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	12	5	2	5	14	20	17
10	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
11	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	12	3	4	5	12	17	13
14	NK Krka	12	3	1	8	13	20	10
15	NK Krsko	12	2	3	7	9	25	9
16	NK Brezice	12	1	4	7	12	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bistrica	NK Krsko
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	0-6 L
ND Dravinja	1-3 L	0-6 L
NK Brezice	2-1 W	1-2 L
NK Triglav Kranj	0-1 L	0-2 L
NK Vrhnika	2-0 W	0-0 D
NK Bilje	4-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bistrica (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bistrica

WWLWLLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	1	7	W
17/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
26/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W

NK Krsko

LDLLLWDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	1	3	L
18/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
11/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
03/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
29/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bistrica vs NK Krsko?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bistrica win (66%). Probabilities: NK Bistrica 66%, draw 19%, NK Krsko 15%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bistrica vs NK Krsko?

The model expects 3.65 goals (NK Bistrica 2.5 · NK Krsko 1.14), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bistrica vs NK Krsko?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.