Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Jesenice

Team pages: NK Rudar Velenje · NK Jesenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

NK Rudar Velenje1.93

NK Jesenice1.27

1X2

52% 24% 24%

NK Rudar Velenje Draw NK Jesenice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Rudar Velenje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLLWL

NK Jesenice 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLDLL

Head-to-head

NK Rudar Velenje 0–1–1 NK Jesenice (2 last)

NK Jesenice2-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje1-1NK Jesenice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Rudar Velenje 1498 · NK Jesenice 1514

	NK Rudar Velenje	Draw	NK Jesenice
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Rudar Velenje	NK Jesenice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +4’	1.73	3.70	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Rudar Velenje 0–1–1 NK Jesenice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Rudar Velenje
31/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Jesenice

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	12	10	1	1	24	7	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	12	9	1	2	25	8	28
3	ND Beltinci	12	8	1	3	33	17	25
4	NK Bistrica	12	6	2	4	17	16	20
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	12	6	1	5	20	12	19
6	NK Rudar Velenje	12	6	0	6	21	18	18
7	NK Bilje	12	6	0	6	20	25	18
8	NK Jesenice	12	5	2	5	20	19	17
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	12	5	2	5	14	20	17
10	Jadran Dekani	12	4	4	4	7	7	16
11	NK Vrhnika	12	4	2	6	11	18	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	12	3	4	5	12	17	13
13	ND Dravinja	12	3	2	7	18	26	11
14	NK Krka	12	3	1	8	13	20	10
15	NK Krsko	12	2	3	7	9	25	9
16	NK Brezice	12	1	4	7	12	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Rudar Velenje	NK Jesenice
NK Bistrica	1-3 L	1-3 L
ND Dravinja	3-1 W	1-2 L
NK Brezice	4-3 W	2-2 D
NK Triglav Kranj	2-0 W	0-4 L
NK Vrhnika	2-4 L	5-0 W
NK Bilje	4-1 W	2-0 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudar Velenje (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Rudar Velenje

LWLWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
17/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	7	8	W
09/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
04/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	8	L
28/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	4-3	7	4	W
13/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
04/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	9	2	L
29/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
22/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	8	L

NK Jesenice

WWLWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
16/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
04/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	1	4	L
27/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-0	3	4	W
20/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
29/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Jesenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Rudar Velenje win (52%). Probabilities: NK Rudar Velenje 52%, draw 24%, NK Jesenice 24%.

How many goals are expected in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Jesenice?

The model expects 3.2 goals (NK Rudar Velenje 1.93 · NK Jesenice 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Jesenice?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.