Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Team pages: ND Slovan Ljubljana · NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.21

NK Primorje Ajdovscina1.4

1X2

32% 27% 41%

ND Slovan Ljubljana Draw NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Slovan Ljubljana 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWDLL

NK Primorje Ajdovscina 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLDDDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1499 · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1471

	ND Slovan Ljubljana	Draw	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	33%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Slovan Ljubljana	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	2.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	6.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:17 +8’	2.75	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:24 +42’	2.81	3.22	2.21
12:02 +8’	2.85▲	3.27▲	2.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	13	10	1	2	26	10	31
2	NK Triglav Kranj	12	9	1	2	25	8	28
3	ND Beltinci	12	8	1	3	33	17	25
4	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
5	NK Bilje	13	7	0	6	23	27	21
6	NK Bistrica	12	6	2	4	17	16	20
7	NK Rudar Velenje	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
8	NK Jesenice	13	5	3	5	22	21	18
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	12	5	2	5	14	20	17
10	Jadran Dekani	13	4	4	5	7	8	16
11	ND Dravinja	13	4	2	7	19	26	14
12	NK Vrhnika	13	4	2	7	12	22	14
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	12	3	4	5	12	17	13
14	NK Krka	12	3	1	8	13	20	10
15	NK Krsko	12	2	3	7	9	25	9
16	NK Brezice	12	1	4	7	12	21	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Slovan Ljubljana	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
NK Rudar Velenje	0-2 L	1-0 W
NK Bistrica	1-1 D	0-1 L
ND Dravinja	4-1 W	1-1 D
NK Brezice	1-0 W	1-1 D
NK Triglav Kranj	0-3 L	1-1 D
NK Vrhnika	0-0 D	1-2 L
NK Bilje	0-4 L	2-3 L
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-1 W	0-0 D
NK Krka	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ND Slovan Ljubljana (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Slovan Ljubljana

WWLDLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
17/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	1	8	L
11/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
03/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	4-1	7	3	W
27/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
12/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
28/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	0	5	W

NK Primorje Ajdovscina

LWDLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
11/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
03/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	9	9	D
26/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
11/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	2-3	4	8	L
04/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
28/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	3-2	5	4	W
23/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Primorje Ajdovscina win (41%). Probabilities: ND Slovan Ljubljana 32%, draw 27%, NK Primorje Ajdovscina 41%.

How many goals are expected in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina?

The model expects 2.61 goals (ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.21 · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Slovan Ljubljana vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.