Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 27/10, 17:00

Prediction: NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Rudar Velenje

Team pages: NK Primorje Ajdovscina · NK Rudar Velenje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

NK Primorje Ajdovscina1.38

NK Rudar Velenje1.51

1X2

34% 27% 40%

NK Primorje Ajdovscina Draw NK Rudar Velenje

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Primorje Ajdovscina 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLDDDL

NK Rudar Velenje 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

NK Primorje Ajdovscina 4–1–1 NK Rudar Velenje (6 last)

NK Primorje Ajdovscina3-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje0-1NK Primorje Ajdovscina
NK Rudar Velenje0-2NK Primorje Ajdovscina
NK Primorje Ajdovscina2-2NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje2-0NK Primorje Ajdovscina
NK Primorje Ajdovscina4-0NK Rudar Velenje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1463 · NK Rudar Velenje 1528

	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	Draw	NK Rudar Velenje
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Rudar Velenje (rating 1463 vs 1528).
H2H favours NK Primorje Ajdovscina: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	NK Rudar Velenje
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	5.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +3’	2.63	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 4–1–1 NK Rudar Velenje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	3-1 HT 2-0	NK Rudar Velenje
18/08/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
10/04/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
24/09/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-2 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje
03/04/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
18/09/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	4-0 HT 1-0	NK Rudar Velenje

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	11	9	1	1	22	7	28
2	ND Beltinci	11	8	1	2	30	13	25
3	NK Triglav Kranj	11	8	1	2	21	5	25
4	NK Rudar Velenje	11	6	0	5	21	17	18
5	NK Bilje	11	6	0	5	20	22	18
6	NK Jesenice	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
7	NK Bistrica	11	5	2	4	14	15	17
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	14	18	17
9	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	11	5	1	5	17	12	16
10	Jadran Dekani	11	4	3	4	7	7	15
11	NK Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	11	15	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	11	2	4	5	11	17	10
13	NK Krsko	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
14	ND Dravinja	11	2	2	7	12	26	8
15	NK Krka	11	2	1	8	10	20	7
16	NK Brezice	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	NK Rudar Velenje
NK Bistrica	0-1 L	1-3 L
ND Dravinja	1-1 D	3-1 W
NK Brezice	1-1 D	4-3 W
NK Triglav Kranj	1-1 D	2-0 W
NK Vrhnika	1-2 L	2-4 L
NK Bilje	2-3 L	4-1 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-0 D	0-2 L
NK Krka	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudar Velenje (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Primorje Ajdovscina

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
11/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
03/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	9	9	D
26/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
11/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	2-3	4	8	L
04/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
28/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	3-2	5	4	W
23/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
15/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	0	7	W

NK Rudar Velenje

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	7	8	W
09/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
04/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	8	L
28/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	4-3	7	4	W
13/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
04/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	9	2	L
29/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
22/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
14/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Rudar Velenje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Rudar Velenje win (40%). Probabilities: NK Primorje Ajdovscina 34%, draw 27%, NK Rudar Velenje 40%.

How many goals are expected in NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Rudar Velenje?

The model expects 2.89 goals (NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1.38 · NK Rudar Velenje 1.51), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Primorje Ajdovscina vs NK Rudar Velenje?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.