Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 28/10, 14:00

Prediction: NK Jesenice vs NK Bistrica

Team pages: NK Jesenice · NK Bistrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

NK Jesenice1.69

NK Bistrica1.54

1X2

41% 25% 34%

NK Jesenice Draw NK Bistrica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Jesenice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWLDL

NK Bistrica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLWDW

Head-to-head

NK Jesenice 0–1–1 NK Bistrica (2 last)

NK Bistrica1-1NK Jesenice
NK Jesenice1-2NK Bistrica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Jesenice 1513 · NK Bistrica 1543

	NK Jesenice	Draw	NK Bistrica
Our model	40%	25%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Jesenice	NK Bistrica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +13’	2.20	3.60	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Jesenice 0–1–1 NK Bistrica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-1 HT 1-1	NK Jesenice
14/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	11	9	1	1	22	7	28
2	ND Beltinci	11	8	1	2	30	13	25
3	NK Triglav Kranj	11	8	1	2	21	5	25
4	NK Rudar Velenje	11	6	0	5	21	17	18
5	NK Bilje	11	6	0	5	20	22	18
6	NK Jesenice	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
7	NK Bistrica	11	5	2	4	14	15	17
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	14	18	17
9	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	11	5	1	5	17	12	16
10	Jadran Dekani	11	4	3	4	7	7	15
11	NK Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	11	15	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	11	2	4	5	11	17	10
13	NK Krsko	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
14	ND Dravinja	11	2	2	7	12	26	8
15	NK Krka	11	2	1	8	10	20	7
16	NK Brezice	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Jesenice	NK Bistrica
ND Dravinja	1-2 L	1-3 L
NK Brezice	2-2 D	2-1 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-4 L	0-1 L
NK Vrhnika	5-0 W	2-0 W
NK Bilje	2-0 W	4-1 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	3-1 W	0-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Jesenice

DWWLWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
04/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	1	4	L
27/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-0	3	4	W
20/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
29/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

NK Bistrica

LWWLWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
26/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W
15/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Jesenice vs NK Bistrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Jesenice win (41%). Probabilities: NK Jesenice 41%, draw 25%, NK Bistrica 34%.

How many goals are expected in NK Jesenice vs NK Bistrica?

The model expects 3.23 goals (NK Jesenice 1.69 · NK Bistrica 1.54), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Jesenice vs NK Bistrica?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.