Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 27/10, 14:30

Prediction: NK Krka vs NK Vrhnika

Team pages: NK Krka · NK Vrhnika

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

NK Krka1.42

NK Vrhnika1.35

1X2

38% 27% 35%

NK Krka Draw NK Vrhnika

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krka 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLLLL

NK Vrhnika 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLDLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krka 1461 · NK Vrhnika 1485

	NK Krka	Draw	NK Vrhnika
Our model	38%	28%	35%
Market	38%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krka	NK Vrhnika
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.7	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +7’	2.35	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	11	9	1	1	22	7	28
2	ND Beltinci	11	8	1	2	30	13	25
3	NK Triglav Kranj	11	8	1	2	21	5	25
4	NK Rudar Velenje	11	6	0	5	21	17	18
5	NK Bilje	11	6	0	5	20	22	18
6	NK Jesenice	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
7	NK Bistrica	11	5	2	4	14	15	17
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	14	18	17
9	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	11	5	1	5	17	12	16
10	Jadran Dekani	11	4	3	4	7	7	15
11	NK Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	11	15	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	11	2	4	5	11	17	10
13	NK Krsko	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
14	ND Dravinja	11	2	2	7	12	26	8
15	NK Krka	11	2	1	8	10	20	7
16	NK Brezice	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krka	NK Vrhnika
ND Beltinci	0-3 L	1-2 L
Jadran Dekani	1-2 L	0-1 L
NK Krsko	1-0 W	0-0 D
NK Jesenice	2-0 W	0-5 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-3 L	2-1 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-3 L	0-0 D
NK Rudar Velenje	0-3 L	4-2 W
NK Bistrica	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Vrhnika (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Krka

DLLLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	9	7	W
05/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
28/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
21/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	11	5	L
14/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
07/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

NK Vrhnika

WWLWDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
03/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-5	3	4	L
19/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	9	W
12/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
29/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
22/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krka vs NK Vrhnika?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Krka win (38%). Probabilities: NK Krka 38%, draw 27%, NK Vrhnika 35%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krka vs NK Vrhnika?

The model expects 2.77 goals (NK Krka 1.42 · NK Vrhnika 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krka vs NK Vrhnika?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.