Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 27/10, 14:00

Prediction: ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Bilje

Team pages: ND Ilirija Ljubljana · NK Bilje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.96

NK Bilje1.23

1X2

53% 24% 23%

ND Ilirija Ljubljana Draw NK Bilje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWLLL

NK Bilje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 2–1–3 NK Bilje (6 last)

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-0NK Bilje
NK Bilje1-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
NK Bilje1-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-0NK Bilje
ND Ilirija Ljubljana0-3NK Bilje
NK Bilje3-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1490 · NK Bilje 1496

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	Draw	NK Bilje
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Bilje: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	NK Bilje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	2.1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +2’	1.67	3.75	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 2–1–3 NK Bilje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
05/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	1-1 HT 0-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
23/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	1-0 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
08/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
06/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-3 HT 0-3	NK Bilje
29/07/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	3-2 HT 3-2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	11	9	1	1	22	7	28
2	ND Beltinci	11	8	1	2	30	13	25
3	NK Triglav Kranj	11	8	1	2	21	5	25
4	NK Rudar Velenje	11	6	0	5	21	17	18
5	NK Bilje	11	6	0	5	20	22	18
6	NK Jesenice	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
7	NK Bistrica	11	5	2	4	14	15	17
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	14	18	17
9	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	11	5	1	5	17	12	16
10	Jadran Dekani	11	4	3	4	7	7	15
11	NK Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	11	15	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	11	2	4	5	11	17	10
13	NK Krsko	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
14	ND Dravinja	11	2	2	7	12	26	8
15	NK Krka	11	2	1	8	10	20	7
16	NK Brezice	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	NK Bilje
ND Beltinci	2-4 L	1-5 L
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	2-0 W
NK Krsko	2-0 W	1-3 L
NK Jesenice	1-3 L	0-2 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	0-0 D	3-2 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-2 L	4-0 W
NK Rudar Velenje	2-0 W	1-4 L
NK Bistrica	6-0 W	1-4 L
ND Dravinja	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

WWWLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
04/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-4	5	6	L
25/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	2	1	W
09/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

NK Bilje

WLLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	4	L
06/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
27/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
11/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-2	3	8	W
05/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
29/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-4	2	7	L
16/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Bilje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ND Ilirija Ljubljana win (53%). Probabilities: ND Ilirija Ljubljana 53%, draw 24%, NK Bilje 23%.

How many goals are expected in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Bilje?

The model expects 3.2 goals (ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.96 · NK Bilje 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Bilje?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.