Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Bilje vs NK Krka

Team pages: NK Bilje · NK Krka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

NK Bilje1.6

NK Krka1.51

1X2

39% 26% 35%

NK Bilje Draw NK Krka

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bilje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLLWL

NK Krka 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

NK Bilje 1–3–2 NK Krka (6 last)

NK Bilje0-0NK Krka
NK Krka0-1NK Bilje
NK Krka2-2NK Bilje
NK Bilje0-0NK Krka
NK Krka1-0NK Bilje
NK Bilje0-2NK Krka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bilje 1517 · NK Krka 1466

	NK Bilje	Draw	NK Krka
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bilje (rating 1517 vs 1466).
H2H favours NK Krka: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bilje	NK Krka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.7	2.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +28’	2.30	3.50	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bilje 1–3–2 NK Krka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krka
31/08/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
23/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	2-2 HT 1-0	NK Bilje
16/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krka
10/05/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
20/10/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-2 HT 0-2	NK Krka

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	10	8	1	1	21	7	25
2	ND Beltinci	10	7	1	2	28	12	22
3	NK Triglav Kranj	10	7	1	2	20	5	22
4	NK Jesenice	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	14	16	17
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	10	5	1	4	17	11	16
7	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
8	NK Bilje	10	5	0	5	18	22	15
9	Jadran Dekani	10	4	3	3	7	6	15
10	NK Bistrica	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	NK Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
13	NK Krsko	10	2	3	5	8	17	9
14	NK Krka	10	2	1	7	10	18	7
15	ND Dravinja	10	1	2	7	10	25	5
16	NK Brezice	10	0	3	7	10	20	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bilje	NK Krka
ND Beltinci	1-5 L	0-3 L
Jadran Dekani	2-0 W	1-2 L
NK Krsko	1-3 L	1-0 W
NK Jesenice	0-2 L	2-0 W
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	3-2 W	2-3 L
ND Slovan Ljubljana	4-0 W	2-3 L
NK Rudar Velenje	1-4 L	0-3 L
NK Bistrica	1-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NK Krka (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bilje

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	4	L
06/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
27/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
11/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-2	3	8	W
05/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
29/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-4	2	7	L
16/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
08/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	5	7	W

NK Krka

LDLLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	9	7	W
05/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
28/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	6	4	L
21/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	11	5	L
14/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
07/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
23/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bilje vs NK Krka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bilje win (39%). Probabilities: NK Bilje 39%, draw 26%, NK Krka 35%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bilje vs NK Krka?

The model expects 3.1 goals (NK Bilje 1.6 · NK Krka 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bilje vs NK Krka?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.