Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 18/10, 17:30

Prediction: NK Brezice vs NK Krsko

Team pages: NK Brezice · NK Krsko

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

NK Brezice1.63

NK Krsko1.2

1X2

47% 26% 28%

NK Brezice Draw NK Krsko

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Brezice 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLLDD

NK Krsko 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLLWDL

Head-to-head

NK Brezice 0–2–4 NK Krsko (6 last)

NK Krsko5-0NK Brezice
NK Krsko2-1NK Brezice
NK Brezice0-0NK Krsko
NK Brezice1-1NK Krsko
NK Brezice0-1NK Krsko
NK Krsko4-2NK Brezice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Brezice 1451 · NK Krsko 1493

	NK Brezice	Draw	NK Krsko
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Krsko (rating 1451 vs 1493).
H2H favours NK Krsko: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Brezice	NK Krsko
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +59’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Brezice 0–2–4 NK Krsko

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Krsko	5-0 HT 2-0	NK Brezice
21/05/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Brezice
07/11/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krsko
20/04/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	1-1 HT 1-1	NK Krsko
21/09/19 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Brezice	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Krsko
07/07/16 Club Friendly List	NK Krsko	4-2 HT 3-2	NK Brezice

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	11	9	1	1	22	7	28
2	ND Beltinci	10	7	1	2	28	12	22
3	NK Triglav Kranj	10	7	1	2	20	5	22
4	NK Jesenice	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	14	16	17
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	11	5	1	5	17	12	16
7	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
8	NK Bilje	10	5	0	5	18	22	15
9	Jadran Dekani	10	4	3	3	7	6	15
10	NK Bistrica	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	NK Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
13	NK Krsko	10	2	3	5	8	17	9
14	NK Krka	10	2	1	7	10	18	7
15	ND Dravinja	10	1	2	7	10	25	5
16	NK Brezice	10	0	3	7	10	20	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Brezice	NK Krsko
NK Jesenice	2-2 D	1-1 D
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1-1 D	2-1 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-4 L	0-2 L
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	0-6 L
NK Vrhnika	1-2 L	0-0 D
NK Bilje	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Krsko (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Brezice

LLLDLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-2	9	7	D
03/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	9	D
27/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
19/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-4	4	4	L
16/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
12/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
05/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
15/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
08/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	5	7	L

NK Krsko

WDLDLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
03/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
29/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	1	4	L
14/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
08/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Brezice vs NK Krsko?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Brezice win (47%). Probabilities: NK Brezice 47%, draw 26%, NK Krsko 28%.

How many goals are expected in NK Brezice vs NK Krsko?

The model expects 2.83 goals (NK Brezice 1.63 · NK Krsko 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Brezice vs NK Krsko?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.