Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 18/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Vrhnika vs ND Beltinci

Team pages: NK Vrhnika · ND Beltinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

NK Vrhnika1.09

ND Beltinci1.84

1X2

22% 24% 54%

NK Vrhnika Draw ND Beltinci

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Vrhnika 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWLDL

ND Beltinci 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Vrhnika 1487 · ND Beltinci 1566

	NK Vrhnika	Draw	ND Beltinci
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Beltinci (rating 1487 vs 1566).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Vrhnika	ND Beltinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +11’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	11	9	1	1	22	7	28
2	ND Beltinci	10	7	1	2	28	12	22
3	NK Triglav Kranj	10	7	1	2	20	5	22
4	NK Jesenice	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	14	16	17
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	11	5	1	5	17	12	16
7	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
8	NK Bilje	10	5	0	5	18	22	15
9	Jadran Dekani	10	4	3	3	7	6	15
10	NK Bistrica	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	NK Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
13	NK Krsko	10	2	3	5	8	17	9
14	NK Krka	10	2	1	7	10	18	7
15	ND Dravinja	10	1	2	7	10	25	5
16	NK Brezice	10	0	3	7	10	20	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Vrhnika	ND Beltinci
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	0-0 D
NK Krsko	0-0 D	3-2 W
NK Jesenice	0-5 L	1-3 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-1 W	4-0 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-0 D	1-3 L
NK Rudar Velenje	4-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ND Beltinci (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Vrhnika

LWWLWDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
03/10	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-5	3	4	L
19/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	9	W
12/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
29/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
22/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
07/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

ND Beltinci

WLWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
04/10	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-2	9	6	W
27/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	5-1	1	5	W
13/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
05/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
29/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
23/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
15/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	1-3	7	7	L
07/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Vrhnika vs ND Beltinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Beltinci win (54%). Probabilities: NK Vrhnika 22%, draw 24%, ND Beltinci 54%.

How many goals are expected in NK Vrhnika vs ND Beltinci?

The model expects 2.93 goals (NK Vrhnika 1.09 · ND Beltinci 1.84), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Vrhnika vs ND Beltinci?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.