Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Rudar Velenje · ND Slovan Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

NK Rudar Velenje2.18

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.36

1X2

55% 23% 22%

NK Rudar Velenje Draw ND Slovan Ljubljana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Rudar Velenje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWLL

ND Slovan Ljubljana 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLWWD

Head-to-head

NK Rudar Velenje 2–1–1 ND Slovan Ljubljana (4 last)

NK Rudar Velenje4-0ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana0-3NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje0-2ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana1-1NK Rudar Velenje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Rudar Velenje 1521 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1516

	NK Rudar Velenje	Draw	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Rudar Velenje: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Rudar Velenje	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +7’	1.65	3.80	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Rudar Velenje 2–1–1 ND Slovan Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	4-0 HT 0-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
21/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-3 HT 0-2	NK Rudar Velenje
16/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-2 HT 0-1	ND Slovan Ljubljana
31/08/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	10	8	1	1	21	7	25
2	ND Beltinci	10	7	1	2	28	12	22
3	NK Triglav Kranj	10	7	1	2	20	5	22
4	NK Jesenice	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	14	16	17
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	10	5	1	4	17	11	16
7	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
8	NK Bilje	10	5	0	5	18	22	15
9	Jadran Dekani	10	4	3	3	7	6	15
10	NK Bistrica	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	NK Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
13	NK Krsko	10	2	3	5	8	17	9
14	NK Krka	10	2	1	7	10	18	7
15	ND Dravinja	10	1	2	7	10	25	5
16	NK Brezice	10	0	3	7	10	20	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Rudar Velenje	ND Slovan Ljubljana
NK Bistrica	1-3 L	1-1 D
ND Dravinja	3-1 W	4-1 W
NK Brezice	4-3 W	1-0 W
NK Triglav Kranj	2-0 W	0-3 L
NK Vrhnika	2-4 L	0-0 D
NK Bilje	4-1 W	0-4 L
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 L	2-1 W
NK Krka	3-0 W	3-2 W
ND Beltinci	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ND Slovan Ljubljana (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Rudar Velenje

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
04/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	4	8	L
28/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	4-3	7	4	W
13/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
04/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	9	2	L
29/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
22/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
14/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
07/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

ND Slovan Ljubljana

LWWWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
03/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	4-1	7	3	W
27/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
12/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
28/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
15/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-1	1	7	W
08/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	8	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Rudar Velenje win (55%). Probabilities: NK Rudar Velenje 55%, draw 23%, ND Slovan Ljubljana 22%.

How many goals are expected in NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model expects 3.54 goals (NK Rudar Velenje 2.18 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.36), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.