Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 16/10, 18:00

Prediction: ND Dravinja vs NK Jesenice

Team pages: ND Dravinja · NK Jesenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

ND Dravinja1.36

NK Jesenice1.7

1X2

30% 25% 45%

ND Dravinja Draw NK Jesenice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Dravinja 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWLLD

NK Jesenice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWWLD

Head-to-head

ND Dravinja 1–2 NK Jesenice (3 last)

NK Jesenice0-1ND Dravinja
NK Jesenice3-1ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja0-2NK Jesenice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Dravinja 1432 · NK Jesenice 1523

	ND Dravinja	Draw	NK Jesenice
Our model	30%	26%	45%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Jesenice (rating 1432 vs 1523).
H2H favours NK Jesenice: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Dravinja	NK Jesenice
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.5	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.9	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +12’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Dravinja 1–0–2 NK Jesenice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	0-1 HT 0-1	ND Dravinja
31/01/26 Club Friendly List	NK Jesenice	3-1 HT 2-0	ND Dravinja
15/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	0-2 HT 0-0	NK Jesenice

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	10	8	1	1	21	7	25
2	ND Beltinci	10	7	1	2	28	12	22
3	NK Triglav Kranj	10	7	1	2	20	5	22
4	NK Jesenice	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	14	16	17
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	10	5	1	4	17	11	16
7	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
8	NK Bilje	10	5	0	5	18	22	15
9	Jadran Dekani	10	4	3	3	7	6	15
10	NK Bistrica	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	NK Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
13	NK Krsko	10	2	3	5	8	17	9
14	NK Krka	10	2	1	7	10	18	7
15	ND Dravinja	10	1	2	7	10	25	5
16	NK Brezice	10	0	3	7	10	20	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Dravinja	NK Jesenice
Tabor Sezana	1-5 L	0-3 L
NK Brezice	1-1 D	2-2 D
NK Triglav Kranj	1-4 L	0-4 L
NK Vrhnika	0-2 L	5-0 W
NK Bilje	1-3 L	2-0 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Jesenice (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Dravinja

LLLLDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
03/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
28/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
20/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
11/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	6	L
05/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	1	6	L
22/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
09/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

NK Jesenice

LDWWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
04/10	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	1	4	L
27/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-0	3	4	W
20/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
29/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Dravinja vs NK Jesenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Jesenice win (45%). Probabilities: ND Dravinja 30%, draw 25%, NK Jesenice 45%.

How many goals are expected in ND Dravinja vs NK Jesenice?

The model expects 3.06 goals (ND Dravinja 1.36 · NK Jesenice 1.7), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Dravinja vs NK Jesenice?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.