Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Bistrica vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Team pages: NK Bistrica · NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

NK Bistrica1.81

NK Primorje Ajdovscina1.28

1X2

49% 26% 26%

NK Bistrica Draw NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bistrica 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLWD

NK Primorje Ajdovscina 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLDDD

Head-to-head

NK Bistrica 0–3–1 NK Primorje Ajdovscina (4 last)

NK Bistrica1-1NK Primorje Ajdovscina
NK Primorje Ajdovscina2-2NK Bistrica
NK Primorje Ajdovscina2-0NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica0-0NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bistrica 1543 · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1469

	NK Bistrica	Draw	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bistrica (rating 1543 vs 1469).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bistrica	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +19’	2.10	3.30	3.00
17:07 +9’	1.85▼	3.40▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bistrica 0–3–1 NK Primorje Ajdovscina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
23/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-2 HT 0-1	NK Bistrica
04/03/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-0 HT 2-0	NK Bistrica
20/08/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Primorje Ajdovscina

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	10	8	1	1	21	7	25
2	ND Beltinci	10	7	1	2	28	12	22
3	NK Triglav Kranj	10	7	1	2	20	5	22
4	NK Jesenice	10	5	2	3	18	14	17
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	14	16	17
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	10	5	1	4	17	11	16
7	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
8	NK Bilje	10	5	0	5	18	22	15
9	Jadran Dekani	10	4	3	3	7	6	15
10	NK Bistrica	10	4	2	4	13	15	14
11	NK Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
13	NK Krsko	10	2	3	5	8	17	9
14	NK Krka	10	2	1	7	10	18	7
15	ND Dravinja	10	1	2	7	10	25	5
16	NK Brezice	10	0	3	7	10	20	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bistrica	NK Primorje Ajdovscina
ND Dravinja	1-3 L	1-1 D
NK Brezice	2-1 W	1-1 D
NK Triglav Kranj	0-1 L	1-1 D
NK Vrhnika	2-0 W	1-2 L
NK Bilje	4-1 W	2-3 L
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-6 L	0-0 D
NK Krka	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Primorje Ajdovscina (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bistrica

DLWWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/10	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
26/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W
15/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	3	1	L
07/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

NK Primorje Ajdovscina

LWLWDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
03/10	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	9	9	D
26/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
11/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	2-3	4	8	L
04/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
28/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	3-2	5	4	W
23/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
15/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	0	7	W
08/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bistrica vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bistrica win (49%). Probabilities: NK Bistrica 49%, draw 26%, NK Primorje Ajdovscina 26%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bistrica vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina?

The model expects 3.1 goals (NK Bistrica 1.81 · NK Primorje Ajdovscina 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bistrica vs NK Primorje Ajdovscina?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.