Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: NK Krsko vs NK Triglav Kranj

Team pages: NK Krsko · NK Triglav Kranj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

NK Krsko0.91

NK Triglav Kranj1.99

1X2

16% 22% 62%

NK Krsko Draw NK Triglav Kranj

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krsko 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLDLLLWD

NK Triglav Kranj 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

NK Krsko 0–1–5 NK Triglav Kranj (6 last)

NK Triglav Kranj4-0NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-4NK Triglav Kranj
NK Krsko1-2NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj2-2NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-4NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj4-0NK Krsko

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krsko 1513 · NK Triglav Kranj 1579

	NK Krsko	Draw	NK Triglav Kranj
Our model	15%	23%	62%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1513 vs 1579).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krsko	NK Triglav Kranj
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.8	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.10

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50
X	4.33 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	1.36 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +13’	6.25	4.33	1.36
22:56 +3’	5.50▼	4.10▼	1.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Krsko 0–1–5 NK Triglav Kranj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	4-0 HT 1-0	NK Krsko
11/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-4 HT 0-2	NK Triglav Kranj
05/03/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj
19/08/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	2-2 HT 1-1	NK Krsko
23/04/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-4 HT 0-2	NK Triglav Kranj
08/10/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	4-0 HT 2-0	NK Krsko

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	10	8	1	1	21	7	25
2	NK Triglav Kranj	9	6	1	2	18	5	19
3	ND Beltinci	9	6	1	2	23	11	19
4	NK Jesenice	9	5	1	3	16	12	16
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	9	5	1	3	13	15	16
6	NK Rudar Velenje	10	5	0	5	19	17	15
7	NK Bilje	9	5	0	4	17	17	15
8	NK Vrhnika	9	4	2	3	10	12	14
9	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	9	4	1	4	15	10	13
10	NK Bistrica	9	4	1	4	12	14	13
11	Jadran Dekani	9	3	3	3	6	6	12
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	9	2	3	4	10	15	9
13	NK Krsko	9	2	3	4	8	15	9
14	NK Krka	9	2	1	6	9	16	7
15	ND Dravinja	9	1	1	7	9	24	4
16	NK Brezice	9	0	2	7	8	18	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krsko	NK Triglav Kranj
NK Vrhnika	0-0 D	1-0 W
Tabor Sezana	0-6 L	0-1 L
NK Jesenice	1-1 D	4-0 W
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Triglav Kranj (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Krsko

WWDLDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
29/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	1	4	L
14/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
08/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
23/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	4	W

NK Triglav Kranj

DWLWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
26/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
16/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
13/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
04/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
14/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krsko vs NK Triglav Kranj?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Triglav Kranj win (62%). Probabilities: NK Krsko 16%, draw 22%, NK Triglav Kranj 62%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krsko vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model expects 2.9 goals (NK Krsko 0.91 · NK Triglav Kranj 1.99), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krsko vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.