Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: NK Triglav Kranj vs ND Slovan Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Triglav Kranj · ND Slovan Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

NK Triglav Kranj2.34

ND Slovan Ljubljana0.75

1X2

73% 17% 10%

NK Triglav Kranj Draw ND Slovan Ljubljana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Triglav Kranj 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWWLW

ND Slovan Ljubljana 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWWLD

Head-to-head

NK Triglav Kranj 3–1–0 ND Slovan Ljubljana (4 last)

ND Slovan Ljubljana1-2NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj4-1ND Slovan Ljubljana
NK Triglav Kranj3-2ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana1-1NK Triglav Kranj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Triglav Kranj 1548 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1503

	NK Triglav Kranj	Draw	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Our model	72%	18%	9%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1548 vs 1503).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Triglav Kranj	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	5.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +29’	1.22	5.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Triglav Kranj 3–1–0 ND Slovan Ljubljana

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-2 HT 0-2	NK Triglav Kranj
07/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	4-1 HT 2-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
30/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	3-2 HT 2-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
15/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Triglav Kranj

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
3	NK Triglav Kranj	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
4	NK Bilje	6	4	0	2	14	12	12
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	11	5	10
6	NK Vrhnika	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
7	NK Jesenice	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
8	NK Bistrica	6	3	1	2	8	9	10
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	8	11	10
10	NK Rudar Velenje	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
11	NK Krka	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
13	Jadran Dekani	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
14	NK Krsko	6	1	2	3	5	12	5
15	NK Brezice	6	0	1	5	4	12	1
16	ND Dravinja	6	0	1	5	4	16	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Triglav Kranj	ND Slovan Ljubljana
NK Bistrica	1-0 W	0-1 L
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	5-1 W
NK Vrhnika	1-0 W	0-0 D
Jadran Dekani	2-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Triglav Kranj (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Triglav Kranj

WWLDWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
13/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
04/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
14/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
22/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
16/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	3	7	L
10/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

ND Slovan Ljubljana

WLWLLWWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
28/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
15/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-1	1	7	W
08/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	8	7	L
23/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
17/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-1	3	6	W
10/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-4	1-5	3	4	L
07/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Triglav Kranj vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Triglav Kranj win (73%). Probabilities: NK Triglav Kranj 73%, draw 17%, ND Slovan Ljubljana 10%.

How many goals are expected in NK Triglav Kranj vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model expects 3.08 goals (NK Triglav Kranj 2.34 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 0.75), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Triglav Kranj vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.