Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: NK Krsko vs NK Bilje

Team pages: NK Krsko · NK Bilje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

NK Krsko1.49

NK Bilje1.61

1X2

34% 26% 40%

NK Krsko Draw NK Bilje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krsko 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLDLLL

NK Bilje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLWWL

Head-to-head

NK Krsko 2–2–2 NK Bilje (6 last)

NK Krsko1-0NK Bilje
NK Bilje2-1NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-0NK Bilje
NK Bilje3-5NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-1NK Bilje
NK Bilje0-0NK Krsko

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krsko 1504 · NK Bilje 1512

	NK Krsko	Draw	NK Bilje
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krsko	NK Bilje
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.8	2.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +26’	2.60	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Krsko 2–2–2 NK Bilje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
20/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	2-1 HT 2-0	NK Krsko
15/04/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
01/10/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	3-5 HT 2-2	NK Krsko
08/05/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Bilje
23/10/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krsko

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	NK Triglav Kranj	7	5	0	2	13	4	15
3	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	7	4	1	2	13	5	13
4	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
5	NK Jesenice	7	4	1	2	11	8	13
6	NK Vrhnika	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
7	NK Rudar Velenje	7	4	0	3	15	12	12
8	NK Bilje	7	4	0	3	14	14	12
9	NK Bistrica	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	7	3	1	3	8	14	10
11	Jadran Dekani	7	2	3	2	5	4	9
12	NK Krka	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
14	NK Krsko	7	1	2	4	5	14	5
15	ND Dravinja	7	1	1	5	7	17	4
16	NK Brezice	7	0	1	6	7	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krsko	NK Bilje
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 L	0-1 L
ND Beltinci	2-3 L	3-1 W
NK Jesenice	1-1 D	0-2 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2-1 W	3-2 W
ND Dravinja	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bilje (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Krsko

LLWWDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
29/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	1	4	L
14/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
08/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
23/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
16/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
10/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	10	3	L

NK Bilje

LWLWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
11/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-2	3	8	W
05/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
29/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-4	2	7	L
16/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
08/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
22/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
16/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krsko vs NK Bilje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Bilje win (40%). Probabilities: NK Krsko 34%, draw 26%, NK Bilje 40%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krsko vs NK Bilje?

The model expects 3.11 goals (NK Krsko 1.49 · NK Bilje 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krsko vs NK Bilje?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.