Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: NK Bilje vs NK Jesenice

Team pages: NK Bilje · NK Jesenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

NK Bilje1.47

NK Jesenice1.5

1X2

36% 26% 37%

NK Bilje Draw NK Jesenice

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bilje 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLWW

NK Jesenice 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

NK Bilje 2–0 NK Jesenice (2 last)

NK Bilje2-0NK Jesenice
NK Jesenice1-2NK Bilje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bilje 1544 · NK Jesenice 1452

	NK Bilje	Draw	NK Jesenice
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bilje (rating 1544 vs 1452).
H2H favours NK Bilje: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bilje	NK Jesenice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +61’	2.45	3.40	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bilje 2–0–0 NK Jesenice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Jesenice
28/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	1-2 HT 0-1	NK Bilje

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
3	NK Triglav Kranj	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
4	NK Bilje	6	4	0	2	14	12	12
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	11	5	10
6	NK Vrhnika	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
7	NK Jesenice	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
8	NK Bistrica	6	3	1	2	8	9	10
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	8	11	10
10	NK Rudar Velenje	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
11	NK Krka	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
13	Jadran Dekani	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
14	NK Krsko	6	1	2	3	5	12	5
15	NK Brezice	6	0	1	5	4	12	1
16	ND Dravinja	6	0	1	5	4	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bilje	NK Jesenice
ND Slovan Ljubljana	4-0 W	0-1 L
NK Rudar Velenje	1-4 L	2-1 W
ND Dravinja	3-1 W	0-1 L
ND Beltinci	3-1 W	3-1 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bilje

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-2	3	8	W
05/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
29/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-4	2	7	L
16/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
08/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
22/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
16/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

NK Jesenice

LWLLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
29/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
23/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
10/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
07/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bilje vs NK Jesenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Jesenice win (37%). Probabilities: NK Bilje 36%, draw 26%, NK Jesenice 37%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bilje vs NK Jesenice?

The model expects 2.97 goals (NK Bilje 1.47 · NK Jesenice 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bilje vs NK Jesenice?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.