Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 26/09, 19:00

Prediction: Tabor Sezana vs NK Bistrica

Team pages: Tabor Sezana · NK Bistrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Tabor Sezana2.4

NK Bistrica1.17

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Tabor Sezana Draw NK Bistrica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Tabor Sezana 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWDWL

NK Bistrica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Tabor Sezana 2–2–2 NK Bistrica (6 last)

NK Bistrica2-1Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana2-1NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica0-0Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana0-0NK Bistrica
Tabor Sezana2-0NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica1-0Tabor Sezana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tabor Sezana 1583 · NK Bistrica 1537

	Tabor Sezana	Draw	NK Bistrica
Our model	64%	20%	16%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tabor Sezana (rating 1583 vs 1537).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tabor Sezana	NK Bistrica
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:41 +37’	1.42	4.10	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tabor Sezana 2–2–2 NK Bistrica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-1 HT 0-0	Tabor Sezana
28/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	2-1 HT 2-1	NK Bistrica
27/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	0-0 HT 0-0	Tabor Sezana
12/10/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Bistrica
21/04/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	2-0 HT 2-0	NK Bistrica
30/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	1-0 HT 0-0	Tabor Sezana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	NK Triglav Kranj	7	5	0	2	13	4	15
3	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	7	4	1	2	13	5	13
4	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
5	NK Jesenice	7	4	1	2	11	8	13
6	NK Vrhnika	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
7	NK Rudar Velenje	7	4	0	3	15	12	12
8	NK Bilje	7	4	0	3	14	14	12
9	NK Bistrica	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	7	3	1	3	8	14	10
11	Jadran Dekani	7	2	3	2	5	4	9
12	NK Krka	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
14	NK Krsko	7	1	2	4	5	14	5
15	ND Dravinja	7	1	1	5	7	17	4
16	NK Brezice	7	0	1	6	7	16	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tabor Sezana	NK Bistrica
ND Dravinja	5-1 W	1-3 L
NK Brezice	1-0 W	2-1 W
NK Triglav Kranj	1-0 W	0-1 L
ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tabor Sezana (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tabor Sezana

LLWWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-5	3	5	L
11/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	5-1	4	6	W
04/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
28/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
23/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	5-0	6-0	4	4	W
14/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
08/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
23/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-5	4	6	L
10/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

NK Bistrica

LWWDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W
15/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	3	1	L
07/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
23/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	2	7	W
09/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tabor Sezana vs NK Bistrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tabor Sezana win (63%). Probabilities: Tabor Sezana 63%, draw 21%, NK Bistrica 16%.

How many goals are expected in Tabor Sezana vs NK Bistrica?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Tabor Sezana 2.4 · NK Bistrica 1.17), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tabor Sezana vs NK Bistrica?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.