Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 25/09, 16:00

Prediction: Jadran Dekani vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Team pages: Jadran Dekani · ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Jadran Dekani1.27

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.25

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Jadran Dekani Draw ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Jadran Dekani 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLDDDW

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Jadran Dekani 2–3–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana (6 last)

ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-2Jadran Dekani
Jadran Dekani3-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-2Jadran Dekani
Jadran Dekani0-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Jadran Dekani0-0ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-0Jadran Dekani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jadran Dekani 1511 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1501

	Jadran Dekani	Draw	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jadran Dekani: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jadran Dekani	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:43 +24’	2.45	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jadran Dekani 2–3–1 ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-2 HT 0-1	Jadran Dekani
06/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	Jadran Dekani	3-1 HT 3-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
12/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-2 HT 0-1	Jadran Dekani
28/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	Jadran Dekani	0-0 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
02/03/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	Jadran Dekani	0-0 HT 0-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
13/08/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 1-0	Jadran Dekani

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	NK Triglav Kranj	7	5	0	2	13	4	15
3	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	7	4	1	2	13	5	13
4	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
5	NK Jesenice	7	4	1	2	11	8	13
6	NK Vrhnika	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
7	NK Rudar Velenje	7	4	0	3	15	12	12
8	NK Bilje	7	4	0	3	14	14	12
9	NK Bistrica	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	7	3	1	3	8	14	10
11	Jadran Dekani	7	2	3	2	5	4	9
12	NK Krka	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
14	NK Krsko	7	1	2	4	5	14	5
15	ND Dravinja	7	1	1	5	7	17	4
16	NK Brezice	7	0	1	6	7	16	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jadran Dekani	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Beltinci	0-0 D	1-3 L
NK Krsko	0-0 D	2-0 W
NK Jesenice	0-2 L	1-3 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	0-1 L	0-0 D
ND Slovan Ljubljana	3-0 W	1-2 L
NK Rudar Velenje	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ND Ilirija Ljubljana (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jadran Dekani

WDWWLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
04/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
29/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
21/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
15/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
08/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
23/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	4-3	–	–	W
15/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
10/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	4-1	5-1	7	4	W

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

WLLWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	2	1	W
09/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-3	4	4	L
15/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
09/05	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jadran Dekani vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jadran Dekani win (36%). Probabilities: Jadran Dekani 36%, draw 29%, ND Ilirija Ljubljana 35%.

How many goals are expected in Jadran Dekani vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Jadran Dekani 1.27 · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jadran Dekani vs ND Ilirija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.