Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Bilje

Team pages: NK Rudar Velenje · NK Bilje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

NK Rudar Velenje1.77

NK Bilje1.19

1X2

50% 26% 24%

NK Rudar Velenje Draw NK Bilje

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Rudar Velenje 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDLLWL

NK Bilje 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWLWWL

Head-to-head

NK Rudar Velenje 3–1–2 NK Bilje (6 last)

NK Rudar Velenje5-0NK Bilje
NK Bilje2-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Bilje0-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje1-0NK Bilje
NK Rudar Velenje1-2NK Bilje
NK Bilje2-2NK Rudar Velenje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Rudar Velenje 1513 · NK Bilje 1488

	NK Rudar Velenje	Draw	NK Bilje
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Rudar Velenje: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Rudar Velenje	NK Bilje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:10 +3’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Rudar Velenje 3–1–2 NK Bilje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	5-0 HT 3-0	NK Bilje
23/08/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Rudar Velenje
19/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Rudar Velenje
04/10/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-0 HT 1-0	NK Bilje
12/04/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-2 HT 0-2	NK Bilje
25/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bilje	2-2 HT 1-1	NK Rudar Velenje

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	3	3	0	0	9	0	9
3	ND Beltinci	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
4	NK Vrhnika	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
5	NK Bilje	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
7	NK Jesenice	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	NK Bistrica	3	1	1	1	4	7	4
9	NK Krsko	3	1	1	1	3	8	4
10	Jadran Dekani	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
11	NK Triglav Kranj	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	NK Rudar Velenje	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
14	NK Krka	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
15	NK Brezice	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	ND Dravinja	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Rudar Velenje	NK Bilje
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 L	0-1 L
ND Beltinci	0-2 L	3-1 W
Tabor Sezana	0-2 L	2-1 W
Jadran Dekani	2-2 D	2-2 D
ND Dravinja	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bilje (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Rudar Velenje

DDWWLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
14/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
07/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
23/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
10/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
02/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	3-2	3	7	W
25/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
17/04	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

NK Bilje

DWLLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-4	2	7	L
16/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
08/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
22/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
16/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
30/04	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/04	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	2-2	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Bilje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Rudar Velenje win (50%). Probabilities: NK Rudar Velenje 50%, draw 26%, NK Bilje 24%.

How many goals are expected in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Bilje?

The model expects 2.96 goals (NK Rudar Velenje 1.77 · NK Bilje 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Bilje?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.