Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: ND Beltinci vs Tabor Sezana

Team pages: ND Beltinci · Tabor Sezana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

ND Beltinci1.29

Tabor Sezana1.53

1X2

31% 27% 42%

ND Beltinci Draw Tabor Sezana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Beltinci 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWLWD

Tabor Sezana 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

ND Beltinci 3–1–2 Tabor Sezana (6 last)

Tabor Sezana0-2ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci1-2Tabor Sezana
ND Beltinci1-1Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana3-0ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci2-0Tabor Sezana
Tabor Sezana1-5ND Beltinci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Beltinci 1507 · Tabor Sezana 1608

	ND Beltinci	Draw	Tabor Sezana
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tabor Sezana (rating 1507 vs 1608).
H2H favours ND Beltinci: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Beltinci	Tabor Sezana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.3	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	1.90 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.19 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +2’	3.40	3.40	1.90
05:18 +20’	2.90▼	3.30▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +146’	2.73	3.26	2.21
12:42 +17’	2.74▲	3.29▲	2.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Beltinci 3–1–2 Tabor Sezana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	0-2 HT 0-0	ND Beltinci
19/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	1-2 HT 0-1	Tabor Sezana
28/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	1-1 HT 0-1	Tabor Sezana
14/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	3-0 HT 1-0	ND Beltinci
12/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	2-0 HT 0-0	Tabor Sezana
06/09/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	Tabor Sezana	1-5 HT 0-3	ND Beltinci

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
3	NK Triglav Kranj	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
4	NK Bilje	6	4	0	2	14	12	12
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	11	5	10
6	NK Vrhnika	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
7	NK Jesenice	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
8	NK Bistrica	6	3	1	2	8	9	10
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	8	11	10
10	NK Rudar Velenje	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
11	NK Krka	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
13	Jadran Dekani	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
14	NK Krsko	6	1	2	3	5	12	5
15	NK Brezice	6	0	1	5	4	12	1
16	ND Dravinja	6	0	1	5	4	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Beltinci	Tabor Sezana
Jadran Dekani	0-0 D	0-0 D
NK Krsko	3-2 W	6-0 W
NK Jesenice	1-3 L	3-0 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-3 L	1-5 L
NK Rudar Velenje	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tabor Sezana (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Beltinci

WLLWWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
05/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
29/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
23/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
15/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	1-3	7	7	L
07/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
16/05	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
10/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
06/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	8	4	W

Tabor Sezana

LLLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	5-1	4	6	W
04/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
28/08	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
23/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	5-0	6-0	4	4	W
14/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
08/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
23/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-5	4	6	L
10/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Beltinci vs Tabor Sezana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tabor Sezana win (42%). Probabilities: ND Beltinci 31%, draw 27%, Tabor Sezana 42%.

How many goals are expected in ND Beltinci vs Tabor Sezana?

The model expects 2.83 goals (ND Beltinci 1.29 · Tabor Sezana 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Beltinci vs Tabor Sezana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.