Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 19/09, 16:30

Prediction: ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Krsko

Team pages: ND Ilirija Ljubljana · NK Krsko

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.82

NK Krsko1.02

1X2

55% 24% 20%

ND Ilirija Ljubljana Draw NK Krsko

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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NK Krsko 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 6–0 NK Krsko (6 last)

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-0NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana3-1NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-4ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-0NK Krsko
NK Krsko0-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1481 · NK Krsko 1488

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	Draw	NK Krsko
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ND Ilirija Ljubljana: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	NK Krsko
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	1.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.60▲	Pinn 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	5.00 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +61’	1.48	3.90	5.00
06:08 +9’	1.60▲	3.75▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:42 +95’	1.60	3.76	4.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 6–0–0 NK Krsko

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Krsko
25/01/25 Club Friendly List	NK Krsko	0-2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
13/05/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	3-1 HT 3-1	NK Krsko
31/10/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-4 HT 0-3	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
05/03/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Krsko
21/08/21 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krsko	0-2 HT 0-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
3	NK Triglav Kranj	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
4	NK Bilje	6	4	0	2	14	12	12
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	11	5	10
6	NK Vrhnika	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
7	NK Jesenice	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
8	NK Bistrica	6	3	1	2	8	9	10
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	8	11	10
10	NK Rudar Velenje	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
11	NK Krka	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
13	Jadran Dekani	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
14	NK Krsko	6	1	2	3	5	12	5
15	NK Brezice	6	0	1	5	4	12	1
16	ND Dravinja	6	0	1	5	4	16	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	NK Krsko
NK Jesenice	1-3 L	1-1 D
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	0-0 D	2-1 W
NK Rudar Velenje	2-0 W	0-3 L
ND Dravinja	1-0 W	1-2 L
ND Beltinci	1-3 L	2-3 L
ND Gorica	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Krsko (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	2	1	W
09/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-3	4	4	L
15/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
09/05	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
06/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-2	2	3	L

NK Krsko

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
05/09	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
29/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-5	0-6	1	4	L
14/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
08/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
23/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
16/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
10/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	10	3	L
07/05	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Krsko?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ND Ilirija Ljubljana win (55%). Probabilities: ND Ilirija Ljubljana 55%, draw 24%, NK Krsko 20%.

How many goals are expected in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Krsko?

The model expects 2.84 goals (ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.82 · NK Krsko 1.02), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs NK Krsko?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.