Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: ND Dravinja vs NK Bistrica

Team pages: ND Dravinja · NK Bistrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

ND Dravinja1.35

NK Bistrica1.93

1X2

26% 24% 50%

ND Dravinja Draw NK Bistrica

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Dravinja 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLLDL

NK Bistrica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLWWLW

Head-to-head

ND Dravinja 2–4 NK Bistrica (6 last)

ND Dravinja0-3NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-0ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja2-1NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica4-0ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja3-1NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica3-0ND Dravinja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Dravinja 1459 · NK Bistrica 1561

	ND Dravinja	Draw	NK Bistrica
Our model	26%	24%	50%
Market	26%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bistrica (rating 1459 vs 1561).
H2H favours NK Bistrica: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Dravinja	NK Bistrica
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	1.5 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +15’	3.50	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Dravinja 2–0–4 NK Bistrica

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	0-3 HT 0-2	NK Bistrica
25/08/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-0 HT 1-0	ND Dravinja
24/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	2-1 HT 2-1	NK Bistrica
16/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	4-0 HT 2-0	ND Dravinja
03/03/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	3-1 HT 1-0	NK Bistrica
14/08/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	3-0 HT 0-0	ND Dravinja

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
3	NK Triglav Kranj	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
4	NK Bilje	6	4	0	2	14	12	12
5	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	11	5	10
6	NK Vrhnika	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
7	NK Jesenice	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
8	NK Bistrica	6	3	1	2	8	9	10
9	ND Slovan Ljubljana	6	3	1	2	8	11	10
10	NK Rudar Velenje	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
11	NK Krka	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
13	Jadran Dekani	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
14	NK Krsko	6	1	2	3	5	12	5
15	NK Brezice	6	0	1	5	4	12	1
16	ND Dravinja	6	0	1	5	4	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Dravinja	NK Bistrica
NK Brezice	1-1 D	2-1 W
NK Triglav Kranj	1-4 L	0-1 L
NK Vrhnika	0-2 L	2-0 W
NK Bilje	1-3 L	4-1 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-1 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bistrica (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Dravinja

WDWWLLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	6	L
05/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	1	6	L
22/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
09/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	13	3	W

NK Bistrica

LLWWDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W
15/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	3	1	L
07/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
23/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	2	7	W
09/05	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	6	L
06/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Dravinja vs NK Bistrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Bistrica win (50%). Probabilities: ND Dravinja 26%, draw 24%, NK Bistrica 50%.

How many goals are expected in ND Dravinja vs NK Bistrica?

The model expects 3.28 goals (ND Dravinja 1.35 · NK Bistrica 1.93), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Dravinja vs NK Bistrica?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.