Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: ND Dravinja vs NK Triglav Kranj

Team pages: ND Dravinja · NK Triglav Kranj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

ND Dravinja0.82

NK Triglav Kranj1.79

1X2

16% 24% 60%

ND Dravinja Draw NK Triglav Kranj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Dravinja 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWLLL

NK Triglav Kranj 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLDWL

Head-to-head

ND Dravinja 2–4 NK Triglav Kranj (6 last)

NK Triglav Kranj2-1ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja2-4NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj4-0ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja1-0NK Triglav Kranj
ND Dravinja2-1NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj6-1ND Dravinja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Dravinja 1487 · NK Triglav Kranj 1558

	ND Dravinja	Draw	NK Triglav Kranj
Our model	16%	25%	59%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1487 vs 1558).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Dravinja	NK Triglav Kranj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 5.6	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.00

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:09 +3’	5.25	4.00	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Dravinja 2–0–4 NK Triglav Kranj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	2-1 HT 1-1	ND Dravinja
28/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	2-4 HT 1-3	NK Triglav Kranj
18/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	4-0 HT 3-0	ND Dravinja
10/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Triglav Kranj
11/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	2-1 HT 1-1	NK Triglav Kranj
30/08/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	6-1 HT 3-0	ND Dravinja

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	3	3	0	0	9	0	9
3	ND Beltinci	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
4	NK Vrhnika	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
5	NK Bilje	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
5	ND Slovan Ljubljana	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
7	NK Jesenice	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	NK Bistrica	3	1	1	1	4	7	4
9	NK Krsko	3	1	1	1	3	8	4
10	Jadran Dekani	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
11	NK Triglav Kranj	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	NK Rudar Velenje	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
14	NK Krka	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
15	NK Brezice	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	ND Dravinja	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Dravinja	NK Triglav Kranj
NK Vrhnika	0-2 L	1-0 W
NK Jesenice	1-0 W	3-0 W
NK Krsko	2-1 W	4-0 W
ND Gorica	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: NK Triglav Kranj (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Dravinja

WDWWDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
09/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	13	3	W
30/04	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/04	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	7	8	W

NK Triglav Kranj

WWWWWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
22/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
16/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	3	7	L
10/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
30/04	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
24/04	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
18/04	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
11/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Dravinja vs NK Triglav Kranj?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Triglav Kranj win (60%). Probabilities: ND Dravinja 16%, draw 24%, NK Triglav Kranj 60%.

How many goals are expected in ND Dravinja vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model expects 2.61 goals (ND Dravinja 0.82 · NK Triglav Kranj 1.79), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Dravinja vs NK Triglav Kranj?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.