Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Viking FK
Expected goals: 3.07 (Sarpsborg 1.17 · Viking FK 1.9). The model gives 23% home, 24% draw, 54% away. Under 3.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Sarpsborg is 3-1-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Viking FK 9-1-0 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Sarpsborg and 3 for Viking FK, with 2 draws.
| Sarpsborg | Draw | Viking FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | 23% | 23% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1465 vs 1611).
- H2H favours Viking FK: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarpsborg | Viking FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 2.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 4 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 1–2–3 Viking FK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Europe Friendlies | Viking FK | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sarpsborg |
| 27/09/25 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 3-3 HT 1-3 | Viking FK |
| 09/07/25 Norway Cup | Sarpsborg | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Viking FK |
| 04/05/25 Norway Eliteserien | Viking FK | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sarpsborg |
| 27/10/24 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Viking FK |
| 01/04/24 Norway Eliteserien | Viking FK | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sarpsborg |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Tromso | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Bodo/Glimt | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 19 |
| 5 | Molde | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Ham-Kam | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| 8 | Sandefjord | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 9 | Valerenga | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 14 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 11 | SK Brann | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | KFUM | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 13 | Aalesund | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 11 |
| 15 | Rosenborg | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 16 | IK Start | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarpsborg | Viking FK |
|---|---|---|
| SK Brann | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Valerenga | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Fredrikstad | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| KFUM | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Bodo/Glimt | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Rosenborg | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Viking FK (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarpsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Lillestrom Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
2-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 15/04 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Viking FK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Sonderjyske Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
1-3 | 6-3 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 06/04 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/03 | Haugesund Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Viking FK?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Viking FK win (54%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 23%, draw 24%, Viking FK 54%.
How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Viking FK?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Sarpsborg 1.17 · Viking FK 1.9), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Viking FK?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.