Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/07, 16:00

Prediction: Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Kristiansund BK1.07

Sarpsborg1.33

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Kristiansund BK Draw Sarpsborg

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kristiansund BK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLLWL

Sarpsborg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Kristiansund BK 3–2–1 Sarpsborg (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kristiansund BK 1456 · Sarpsborg 1487

	Kristiansund BK	Draw	Sarpsborg
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kristiansund BK: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kristiansund BK	Sarpsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kristiansund BK 3–2–1 Sarpsborg

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Kristiansund BK	0-1 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg
25/08/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-1 HT 0-1	Kristiansund BK
13/07/25 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
15/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	0-2 HT 0-0	Kristiansund BK
02/06/24 Norway Eliteserien	Kristiansund BK	3-1 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
06/11/22 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	2-2 HT 1-2	Kristiansund BK

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tromso	14	8	4	2	22	14	28
2	Viking FK	11	9	0	2	29	11	27
3	Bodo/Glimt	12	8	2	2	30	11	26
4	Lillestrom	12	7	1	4	19	11	22
5	Molde	12	6	2	4	20	15	20
6	Ham-Kam	11	5	3	3	19	18	18
7	Sarpsborg	12	5	2	5	14	16	17
8	SK Brann	13	5	1	7	26	21	16
9	Sandefjord	12	4	3	5	12	15	15
10	Fredrikstad	12	4	2	6	15	22	14
11	Valerenga	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
12	Aalesund	12	2	6	4	17	22	12
13	Rosenborg	12	3	3	6	12	18	12
14	KFUM	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
15	Kristiansund BK	12	3	2	7	11	21	11
16	IK Start	13	1	4	8	14	30	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kristiansund BK	Sarpsborg
SK Brann	2-1 W	2-1 W
Valerenga	1-3 L	2-3 L
Viking FK	1-2 L	1-0 W
Lillestrom	2-1 W	1-3 L
Molde	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sarpsborg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kristiansund BK

DDLLWLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
03/07	SK Brann Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
27/06	Aalesund Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
29/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
24/05	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
20/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	3	11	W
16/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
03/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
26/04	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	0-0	1-1	8	5	D

Sarpsborg

DLLLWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/07	Lillestrom Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-3	4	2	L
29/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
16/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-2	2-3	0	1	L
09/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	11	8	W
03/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
26/04	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
19/04	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	10	1	L
15/04	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sarpsborg win (42%). Probabilities: Kristiansund BK 30%, draw 28%, Sarpsborg 42%.

How many goals are expected in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Kristiansund BK 1.07 · Sarpsborg 1.33), with a 61% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.